The NFC South enters the 2024 season about as rough as it ended the 2023 season, but there are a few opportunities to add to your bet portfolio. The Buccaneers won the NFC South last year and were the only playoff team to come out of the division. They’re running it back with the same group, but will they run it to the playoffs? Here’s my 2024 NFC South Betting Preview!
The Falcons have brought in a new coaching staff and two new quarterbacks, but did they do enough to address the defense? Can we still fade the Panthers? How about the Saints?
Let’s dive into our season preview for the NFC South Preview for the upcoming season.
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2024 NFC South Betting Preview
Atlanta Falcons (O/U 9.5 wins)
The Atlanta Falcons are one of the trendiest picks to improve over their 2023 campaign. That alone should entice bettors to bet the under. The Falcons should win both games against the Panthers and likely split against the Buccaneers. They could also split against the Saints, getting us four wins before the non-conference slate.
Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, Dallas, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the New York Giants come to Atlanta this year. There are two wins there, but there is potential for maybe three. 3-3 at home in the non-conference slate seems about as good as the Falcons can do.
The Falcons must travel to Philadelphia, Denver, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Washington. This isn’t a terrible road slate, but there’s the potential for a disaster season in Atlanta. Philadelphia is an obvious loss, but the rest of the games are 50/50s at worst. However, the Falcons have a chance to be a mess this year. The defense has serious questions, and Kirk Cousins could be washed.
The Falcons have serious concerns with their pass rush and on the corners. Only a few teams in the league won’t be able to move the ball at will through the air against Atlanta. The offense should improve, but the defense is still a mess. It’s hard to see a team that is this mediocre on defense and has as many questions as they have on offense getting to 10 wins.
Win Total Bet: Under 9.5 Wins
Carolina Panthers (O/U 5.5 wins)
Finding six wins on the Carolina Panthers’ schedule is a challenge. The best-case scenario in the NFC South is that the Panthers split with the Saints, but that’s not a guarantee.
The Panthers must go to Las Vegas, Chicago, Washington, Denver, and Philadelphia. Could the Panthers steal a game on the road against Las Vegas or Washington? Let’s say they manage to get one of those games.
The Chargers, Bengals, Giants, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Cardinals come to Carolina this year. The Chargers and Giants games might be 50/50s. Let’s say they win both. That gets us to five wins. Where does the sixth win show up?
The under is the play here. It’s a struggle to find six wins on the Panthers’ schedule, and there’s a non-zero chance that they have a true two- or three-win disaster season. Hammer the under on 5.5 wins for the Panthers.
Win Total Bet: Under 5.5 Wins
New Orleans Saints (O/U 7.5 Wins)
How is this mediocre New Orleans Saints team getting to eight wins? New Orleans is good enough to win two against the Panthers, but it’s really hard to find games that would count as lock wins after that.
The Saints get Denver, Washington, Los Angeles, Cleveland, and Las Vegas coming to New Orleans this year. They beat the Commanders, Raiders, and Broncos, but none are clear locks. That gets us to five.
They have to travel to the Chargers, Packers, Cowboys, and Chiefs. The game in Los Angeles is a 50/50 until we know if the Chargers are any good, but none of the others look like wins on paper. That gets us to six wins with the potential for a disastrous season if they get hit with injuries.
Win Total Bet: Under 7.5 Wins
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 7.5 Wins)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a season that saw them rack up nine wins in the regular season and win the NFC South. Tampa Bay returns essentially the same roster as last year and is getting zero love from the books this year.
Baker Mayfield returns as the starting quarterback, and the Bucs have found their guy. Mayfield resurrected his career with a season that saw him throw 28 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. He also cleared 4,000 passing yards for the first time.
Look for the Bucs to continue to feel dangerous and clear 7.5 wins. Bet the over, and ladder this one up to 8.5 wins.
Win Total Bet: Over 7.5 Wins
NFC South Betting Preview Division Winner
The Buccaneers won the NFC South last year and are at +350 odds this year. Tampa Bay returns the majority of its roster from last year, and the division hasn’t changed much.
The Bucs lost a few pieces on their defense through free agency. Edge Shaq Barrett, linebacker Devin White, and defensive back Carlton Davis have left. However, the Bucs added Randy Gregory to fill the edge role and picked up several defensive backs to fill the gaps they lost.
The defense is still anchored by defensive linemen Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, and the offensive line turned over a creaky interior. There are also a few new playmakers added through the draft in Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan.
This is essentially the same team with a few additions and slightly younger. Why is Tampa Bay at plus odds again?
The majority of the division is about the same as last year. The New Orleans Saints are succeeding in their efforts to be the most ‘mid’ franchise in the NFL, while the Carolina Panthers are at the beginning of a rebuild.
The only team that appears to have upgraded over the off-season is the Atlanta Falcons, but they may still have serious questions about their roster.
Kirk Cousins, coming off an Achilles’ tendon injury, is an upgrade over Desmond Ridder at quarterback, but that’s not where their problems end. The Falcons still can’t generate a pass rush and have clear gaps throughout their defense.
It also remains to be seen if the Falcons are ready to commit to giving Bijan Robinson a full workload or whether Kyle Pitts will ever break out.
The play is a Bucs team at plus odds that’s running it back with a roster that won the division last year.
Division Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +350
NFC South player prop
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young threw 11 touchdown passes in 16 games last year. He completed fewer than 60% of his passes and never really looked to go downfield last year.
The Panthers have added Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette to add a bit more athleticism to their receiver room, but Young never appeared comfortable in the Panthers’ offense last year. They have added some big play ability, but Johnson has never been the only option in a passing game, and Legette has already missed OTAs with a hamstring injury and time in camp with a foot injury.
The Panthers couldn’t block. 32-year-old Adam Thielen was Young’s top target, and there wasn’t much support from the ground game last year. However, Young didn’t look like a franchise quarterback at any point.
Also, Young is still small for a quarterback by NFL standards. He’s listed at a very generous 5’10” and 204 lbs. If he chooses to sit in the pocket, he will get hit. If he chooses to run more, he will take hits. Either way, tiny QB versus large, angry defenders rarely goes well.
This under is based on poor performance and a chance of missing games due to injury. Young offers both, and this should be an easy under.
NFC South Player Prop: Bryce Young Under 17.5 Touchdown Passes
