The NFL season is creeping upon us, and we have about a week until we officially kick off Week 1. Below are my 2024 NFL Season Long Player Prop Best Bets! There is still plenty of time to fire off future bets, particularly season-long player props for the upcoming season.
I’ll let you in on a secret: betting Unders for the season-long player props is a profitable angle. This is my fourth year betting on season-long player props, and I am 33-5 betting Unders. However, there are certain props where the market is undervaluing a player for the season, and bettors can capitalize on betting the over. Make sure to check ‘The Propcast’ for our 2024 NFL Season Player Prop for every division in the NFL.
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2024 NFL Season Long Player Props
Justin Herbert Under 3600.5 Passing Yards
It is a brand new regime for the Los Angeles Chargers for the upcoming season. The Chargers hired former 49ers and National Champion head coach Jim Harbaugh. It’s troubling for Herbert that he is dealing with an injury before the season even starts with plantar fasciitis. This could be something that lingers throughout the season for Herbert, and there is always the possibility that his season could end early.
Furthermore, I do not like the fact that Herbert is now going to have a fourth different offensive coordinator going into his fifth year of the league. Greg Roman takes over as the offensive coordinator who was formerly with the Baltimore Ravens who were a run-first offense. Additionally, Herbert lost his top two offensive weapons, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, who moved on to NFC teams.
I believe there is going to be an adjustment for Herbert on offense paired with the injury he is dealing with. We’ll see what the running game can do with Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, who were with offensive coordinator Greg Roman in Baltimore. I expect a down year for Herbert and like the under on his season passing yards projection.
Deshaun Watson Under 3350.5 Passing Yards
This is another player in this division that I need to see before I can believe Watson is indeed back. Yes, all the off-the-field stuff is behind him, but he is also coming from a shoulder injury. Looking at the depth chart for the Browns, they have everyone’s favorite backup quarterback, Jameis Winston.
Additionally, the Browns also added former Ravens backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. If Watson is not playing well or is injured again, they have a great insurance policy in those two players.
At some point, the Browns will have Nick Chubb back on the field after suffering a terrible knee injury. Further, the Browns also have Jerome Ford in the backfield, who did a solid job in the absence of Nick Chubb. I’ll take the Under here for Watson.
Garrett Wilson Over 87.5 Receptions
Garrett Wilson comes into this season with the hope that Aaron Rodgers will play the majority of the season with health on his side. Wilson has gone through a quarterback carousel in his young career. Despite the turnover at the quarterback position, Wilson has exceeded 145+ targets in each of his first two seasons and has 80+ receptions as well.
This season could very well be Wilson’s first 100+ reception season. Why? We know that Aaron Rodgers will go to receivers he trusts the most. Wilson should be at the top of that list. I mean, take a look at the targets, receptions, and receiving yards Davante Adams got for the Packers with Rodgers as the quarterback.
Puka Nacua Under 85.5 Receptions
Puka Nacua is coming off an incredible rookie season for the Los Angeles Rams. In fact, Nacua finished the season with 105 receptions and 1,486 receiving yards. However, Nacua was the only player for the Rams last season who played in all 17 games. I believe this season, we will see more of a balanced attack from the Rams.
Kyren Williams should be healthy, and let’s not forget that the Rams also drafted Michigan star running back Blake Corum. Furthermore, Cooper Kupp should be healthy this season for the Rams, and when healthy, we know the production that Kupp can accumulate.
Jared Goff Over 4000.5 Passing Yards
Jared Goff enters his third year as the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions. In the first two seasons for the Lions, Goff has exceeded 4,000 passing yards. The expectations for the Lions’ offense, in particular, remain high, especially with the weapons at the skill positions. The Lions enter the season with Amon-Ra St. Brown as the #1 option, followed by Sam LaPorta. Additionally, the Lions will have a healthy Jameson Williams, who will stretch the field for the offense.
Furthermore, the Lions play 14 of their 17 games inside a dome this season. Goff thrives in climate-controlled environments and it could not get any better this season for Goff. The three outdoor games this season for the Lions are their division road games in Chicago and Green Bay and a west coast trip to face the 49ers. I expect a big year from Goff and to exceed 4,000+ passing yards.