2024 NFC North Betting Preview

2024 NFC North Betting Preview

The NFC North is an up-and-coming division. Long ruled by the Packers, in 2023, the Lions won their first NFC North title since the division was created in 2002. They’ll need to keep their foot on the gas to hold off the Packers and potentially the Bears this year. It’s hard to rule anything out in a division with such heated rivalries. We’ll break down each team and more in this 2024 NFC North betting preview.

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2024 NFC North Betting Preview

Detroit Lions (o/u 10.5 wins)

We’ll start the NFC North betting preview with the returning division champs. The Lions did a great job in the offseason, resigning some of their top talent. They lost some offensive line pieces but countered it with replacements that should be better.

While the offensive line should be better, the main skill position players all return. That includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam Laporta, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, and David Montgomery.

The Lions certainly felt like the defense needed revamping, especially in the secondary. They spent three of their first four draft picks on the secondary, including adding cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw, Jr. The defense should be better than last year, which is good, given that they were in the bottom half of most defensive statistical categories.

The Lions enter the 2024 season with a somewhat tougher season, given their first-place division finish last year. However, some of their tougher games, like against the Bills, are in Detroit. Opening up against the Rams, Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Cowboys, Vikings, and Titans could very easily see this team start 7-0. Maybe they won’t get to their 12 wins from last year, but it doesn’t seem like they’ll regress too much.

Win Total Bet: Over 10.5 Wins (-130 on Caesers)

Green Bay Packers (o/u 9.5 wins)

We’ll continue our NFC North betting preview with last year’s second-place team. The Packers had a lot of question marks entering the 2023 season, their first without Rodgers in over a decade. The season started off at a pace that may have given Packers’ fans a bit of panic. However, in the second half of the season, it appeared as if the Packers had found their next franchise quarterback.

The Packers made signing Jordan Love to a massive extension a priority this offseason and made him the highest-paid player in football. He may have his work cut out for him, as he lost three starting linemen in 2023. The Packers have signed replacements in Andre Dillard and drafting Jordan Morgan. The offensive line revamp will take time to decide if it’s an improvement from last year.

The Packers also have many young receivers: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. They’ll look to keep making plays alongside tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. The Packers also said goodbye to veteran Aaron Jones and replaced him with the younger former Raider Josh Jacobs.

On defense, the Pack added two linebackers in the draft and three safeties. Much like the Lions, improving the secondary was crucial for them. With the addition of these young players, the defense should be able to take another step forward. They’ll join returning players like Kenny Clark, Quay Walker, and Jaire Alexander.

Last year, the Packers had the tenth-easiest schedule and notched nine wins. This year, they enter tied for the fourth-hardest schedule. They play 11 games against teams that ended the 2023 season with a winning record, including seven games against 2023 playoff teams.

Even though the schedule is tougher, the team should improve, and Jordan Love should be able to take another step forward. However, with the tough schedule, they could end up with the exact number of wins as 2023. This was the hardest one to lock down in the division, as the book’s number feels like the exact right pricing.

Win Total Bet: Under 9.5 Wins (+115 on DraftKings)

Chicago Bears (o/u 8.5 wins)

The Chicago Bears have probably experienced the biggest changes in the 2024 NFL North betting preview. They said goodbye to Justin Fields and drafted Caleb Williams, the top quarterback prospect since Trevor Lawrence, number one overall. The Bears also drafted Rome Odunze and traded for Keenan Allen. Both will join the already stud receivers DJ Moore and D’Andre Swift at running back.

The Bears also tried to revamp their offensive line, trading for Ryan Bates and signing multiple guys in free agency. Their offensive line looks like it may be the weakest part of the team. On defense, they swapped a couple of players, including Eddie Jackson, but didn’t lose any major pieces.

This unit finished in the top ten defensively in the second half of the season, and they hope to expand on that. They will still be looking for more defensive line pressure from players other than Montez Sweat. However, rookie Austin Booker could end up pressing for more playing time than originally thought.

They also bring back PFF’s number one graded cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, and 11th linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. They have a lot of the right pieces to continue building on. Questions will loom on whether the offensive line can play well enough to allow Caleb Williams to play to the massive potential he’s said to have.

One more underrated move, as field position matters, especially in the cold winter months of the NFC North. The Bears drafted Australian native Tory Taylor. Known as the “Punt-God,” Taylor was literally an offensive weapon for the Iowa Hawkeyes last year and will look to do the same for Chicago.

Despite some back-to-back road games that will be tricky, the Bears are considered to have one of the easiest strengths of schedules. They rank third to fifth on most schedule-grading websites. They had a top-ten easy schedule last year as well on their way to seven wins.

However, comparing these two units is hard, as they should be vastly different. Bears also won five of their last eight last year, once that defense improved.

Win Total Bet: Over 8.5 Wins (-160 on FanDuel) – Also consider Over 9 Wins (+110 on Caesars)

Minnesota Vikings (o/u 7 Wins)

The last team in the NFC North betting preview also made multiple changes. They said goodbye to quarterback Kirk Cousins and replaced him with Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy. However, McCarthy now has a torn meniscus and will miss some time.

The Vikings bring back one of the best receivers in the game in Justin Jefferson. Their top-tier tight end, TJ Hockenson, is hoping to be back at some point in the first half of the season as well after tearing his ACL last year. The Vikings moved on from their run-game options and signed former-rival Aaron Jones.

On defense, the Vikings added Dallas Turner, one of the top edge rushers in the draft. They only had two picks in the first three rounds, both in the top 17. This team looks to be rebuilding on both sides of the ball. They have pieced in some veterans to go with their younger players. However, it will come down to whether Sam Darnold can play clean, turnover-free football and if the defense can slow opposing offenses.

Last year, they had a middle-of-the-road schedule as far as strength. Losing Kirk Cousins and cycling through some quarterbacks didn’t help their season, but they still finished the year at 7-10. Kevin O’Connell has done a great job getting the most out of his players, even when starters get hurt.

The Vikings have one of the toughest schedules of 2024, landing in the top five toughest on most lists. After opening against the Giants in New York, they play the 49ers, Texans, Jets, Lions, Rams, Colts, and Jaguars to open the season. They may find it tough to win many of those games, if any.

They finish the season with three divisional games in the last four. They’ll face the Bears, then the Seahawks, before finishing with the Packers and Lions. This win total varies, depending on where you look. It ranges anywhere from 6.5 to a very juiced under of 8.5. Right around seven seems to be the consensus.

Win Total Bet: Under 7 Wins (-120 on Caesars) 

NFC North Betting Preview Division Winner

At the very least, the NFC North won’t be boring. There are so many storylines to follow throughout the season. Can the Lions win their second-straight NFC North title and make a deeper playoff run? Will Jordan Love continue improving? Will the Bears actually have a good offense? Finally, what’s life like for the Vikings post-Kirk Cousins?

NFL fans and bettors will all be wondering these things as they consider who to take as the division winner. When looking at this I’m automatically ruling the Vikings out. Kevin O’Connell seems to be a very good young coach. However, this feels like a big-time rebuild, and I think they’ll struggle to win many games. They also have the hardest schedule out of all these teams.

The Bears find themselves with an easier schedule but they are a very young team. We saw CJ Stroud immediately turn his team around from last place to playoff conteder. However, that’s usually not the norm, and he was aided by the fact that key players in his division rivals were injured. The Bears should take a massive leap forward from what we saw last year, especially if the defense can remain strong.

Like the Vikings, the Packers have a tougher schedule. However, they have a lot more pieces in play. There will be a lot of pressure on Jordan Love to maintain the high level of play we saw at the end of last season. Matt LaFleur and this Packers organization believe in him, though. If the defense improves slightly and the offensive line plays well, it will be hard to rule this team out.

That brings us to last year’s division winners, the Detroit Lions. With an offense that should be relatively consistent with last year’s offense, they may have the best offense in the division. The defense should be much better, especially in the secondary,  which is where they needed the most improvement.

Dan Campbell has proven to be a great motivator, and the players love him. After winning 12 games last year, how can you not take this team to win the division again? The Lions are finally good. It’s a weird time in football for fans of any of these NFC North teams.

Division Winner: Detroit Lions (+135 on DraftKings)

NFC North player prop

The NFC North division is filled with some big names at wide receiver. This includes Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, and Keenan Allen. Even players like Sam LaPorta and any one of the Packers’ receivers have shown they can have big games and succeed in big moments. However, there’s one player who has a situation that just seems better than the rest.

Justin Jefferson is the favorite to lead the NFC North in receiving yards at +150. As talented as Jefferson is, and even though he seemed to find success after Kirk Cousins had an injury, he’s in a tough spot. Sam Darnold could run this offense very well. However, I think Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings are going to lean a little bit more on the running game than in years past.

DJ Moore (+650) was an absolute stud last year, bringing in 1,364 receiving yards. I expect he’ll be a stud again this year. However, now he is competing with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze for targets. While I think Moore still has a really good year, I also think the ball will be spread around enough that he’ll have a hard time bringing in the most receiving yards within the division.

That brings us to Amon-Ra St. Brown at +165. St. Brown’s main competition for targets is Sam Laporta. However, even with Laporta entering the scene last year, St. Brown was third overall in the NFL with 1,515 receiving yards.

He was also tied for second in the NFL in receptions. St. Brown seemed too hard to cover even when defenses game-planned for him. He should be able to continue his strong connection with Jared Goff.

NFC North Player Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown Most Regular Season Receiving Yards in NFC North (+165 on Draft Kings)

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