UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya comes to us this week from Perth Australia. Israel Adesanya is on a quest to be the UFC’s first ever three-time middleweight champion. However, he’ll have to take out Dricus du Plessis to get the job done. We hit that fight and dug through the rest of the card to give you our UFC 305 best bets. Come check out these UFC 305 picks for Saturday.
Go here for more UFC picks!
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya – Predictions & Best Bets
Israel Adesanya ML (-115) vs. Dricus Du Plessis
I know this is a fight that have pundits and bettors alike passionate on both sides, but pencil me right in on the Adesanya side. So far nobody planning on grappling Adesanya has been able to do so for a sustained amount of time. On the feet, I respect the power of Du Plessis, but I just don’t think he has the ability to hit the much sharper kickboxer with regularity. Whether Izzy goes for the kill or decides to point fight for 25 minutes, I think he walks away with his belt back at the end of this one.
Stewart Nicoll – Wins via Inside the Distance (+200)
Newcomer Stewart Nicoll is lesser known by the public, but he is a natural finisher. He has seven of his eight wins by finish with a smattering of KOs and submissions. He’ll make that debut against Jesus Aguilar, who has been finished in both of his professional losses. Nicoll is going to be the far surperior wrestler. As long as he avoids the guillotine when he shoots that first takedown, he should dominate on top and get whatever kind of finish he wants. For all of those reasons, I needed this one in my UFC 305 bets.
Josh Culibao ML (-150) vs Ricardo Ramos
Ricardo Ramos has walked into a couple of submission losses in his last two fights. Culibao is certainly capable of making that three straight. However, in lieu of taking the submission prop, I’m going with the moneyline here. Even if that submission doesn’t present itself early, Culibao’s pressure and volume should be too much for Ramos. I also wouldn’t count out the KO possibility being that he has five victories by that method as well.
Ricky Glenn ML (+160) vs Song Kenan
I know that Ricky Glenn has been KO’d in two straight bouts, but they really are dropping him way down in terms of competition. There really hasn’t been a dropoff in skill level like this in recent memory – from Drew Dober to Song Kenan. Kenan has knocked out just one person in the last six years. Add in that Glenn is going up a weight class, which should help his speed and ability to take damage, and I think we’re on an underdog here.
Valter Walker vs Junior Tafa – O1.5 Rounds (-145)
All too often we see a heavyweight fight take place and too much respect being given out for the finish. All heavyweights have the ability to turn the lights off at any time, but maybe don’t have the tactical know-how. This is a prime example.
Walker likes to get takedowns and grind a bit. I think Tafa will be worried to throw too much too early for risk of being taken down. Then if he does, they should stall there for a while. It might be a sweaty 7.5 minutes, but I think we see an easy over here.
Steven Erceg – Wins via Submission (+750)
If you’ve ever read one of my UFC best bet articles, you know I can’t help myself. I always have to end on a bomb.
I love Erceg’s finish prop on Saturday. 67% of his wins have come by finish in his career and the bulk of those are by submission. I know Kai Kara-France has solid takedown defense, but I do think there’s a good chance that he’ll be overly worried about the hands of Erceg. If that’s the case, he may get more takedowns. There’s also the chance of a tag-and-bag, like we saw Brandon Royval do to Kara-France, which is why I have to use it was one of my UFC 305 picks.
If you’d like even more UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya picks, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
