After the left and right turns of the Chicago Street Course, it’s off to the “Tricky Triangle” of Pocono Raceway this week in Long Pod, Pennsylvania. One of the more unique tracks on the NASCAR schedule, each straightaway at Pocono, was modeled after a different track, trying to combine great things from all three. Now, let’s dive into the NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for Pocono Raceway.
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NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway
The tracks used to configure the 2.5-mile track were the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the Milwaukee Mile, and Trenton Speedway. Last week’s race at the Chicago Street Course was Alex Bowman’s first race win in 80 races, marking another long winless streak snapped in 2024. Bowman was also the 12th different winner in 20 races in 2024. Just six races remain in the regular season for 2024, Pocono this week and the Brickyard 400 next week are the final two races before the Olympic break where NASCAR will take two weeks off.
The Great American Getaway 400 Odds
Denny Hamlin +400
Kyle Larson +500
Christopher Bell +700
Martin Truex Jr +800
Tyler Reddick +900
William Byron +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Ty Gibbs +1400
Brad Keselowski +1600
Ryan Blaney +1600
Kyle Busch +2500
Ross Chastain +2500
Alex Bowman +3000
Bubba Wallace +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Joey Logano +3000
Chase Briscoe +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Josh Berry +10000
Noah Gragson +10000
Austin Cindric +20000
Carson Hocevar +20000
Erik Jones +20000
Michael McDowell +20000
Todd Gilliland +20000
AJ Allmendinger +30000
Austin Dillion +30000
Justin Haley +30000
Ryan Preece +30000
Corey Lajoie +50000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
Zane Smith +50000
Harrison Burton +100000
Daniel Hemric +100000
Cody Ware +500000
JJ Yeley +1000000
The Great American Getaway 400 Picks
Tyler Reddick Over William Byron (-115)
William Byron had the best car in this race last season, leading 60 laps before having to settle for a 14th-place finish at the end of the day. Byron also led 22 laps in 2021, despite that his best finish in the last three races here is 12th. The more concerning thing about Byron is he’s been on a cold streak lately.
Last week he managed an eighth-place finish in the chaos of Chicago but never ran as good as you’d expect from him on a road course. In the last eight races before Chicago, Byron only had two finishes better than 15th place. After his stretch of strong races in the spring, it’s not been the same from this #24 team. What the reasoning is, whether it’s testing or something else, I’m fading until we see different.
On the Reddick side of things, he’s been really good at Pocono as well. His average finish over the last four races here is the best in the Cup Series at 6.0. He has second-place finishes the last two seasons here, and keep in mind that he was in two different cars. Reddick is also on the opposite momentum path of Byron.
Over the last six races since the All-Star break, Reddick has only one finish worse than eighth place. I’ll take the momentum side of things and the better finishes at the track between two elite drivers.
Tyler Reddick Top 5 (+125)
Building on the Reddick comments above, the only driver that’s been better than Reddick recently at Pocono is his car owner, Denny Hamlin. I’m also on Reddick to win this race (+900) and a few other bets I gave out on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast. Between his momentum of finishes lately and how well he’s run at Pocono, he’s my biggest investment this weekend.
Bubba Wallace to Win Group C (Caesars +280)
This group is available over on Caesars Sportsbook and consists of Bubba Wallace, Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, and Chris Buescher. The word of the week at Pocono is Toyota. So getting the one Toyota in this group, O’s already a plus. On top of that, Wallace has been very good at Pocono. Only Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson have a better average finishing position over the last four races than Bubba (9.5).
Wallace has also shown well on the comparable track in Michigan with great runs in the last two years. His teammate has the best average finish, and nobody has been better here than his car owner, Denny Hamlin. For Busch, his history here is great, but that was in a Gibbs Toyota, and let’s face it. Things have been rough for the two-time champ lately.
Ross Chastain’s average finish over the last four races here is 26.0, and he only has two top-10 finishes over the last 14 races. That doesn’t exactly speak of confidence in a good run. Chris Buscher won here a long time ago in a rain-shortened race.
I made a case for him to win this race because the number is good, and he’s shown some speed on bigger tracks lately, but Bubba is the clear head-and-shoulders-above pick in this group.
Since 2019 at Pocono when you credit him with where he crossed the finish line in 2022, Denny Hamlin has won 4 of the 8 races, and he’s only finished lower than 6th once and you can get out an asterisk mark for that result.
In 2021 #2 when he finished 14th, Hamlin finished 2nd… pic.twitter.com/9fRlTQOrvZ
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) July 9, 2024
Denny Hamlin to Win (+400)
Denny Hamlin loves triangles. His stats here make that very apparent. Denny won his first two starts at the track, sweeping the 2006 races. He’s got seven wins in total, including last year’s race. In 2022, he’s credited with a 35th-place finish.
He won the race but was disqualified in the post-race inspection. Taking that race out, Denny has four wins and a second-place finish in the last six races here, yeah he’s that good. I don’t always like betting on the race favorites, but this is a week to do it.
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