NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Grant Park 165 – Chicago Street Course

NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Grant Park 165 - Chicago Street Course

NASCAR heads back to the streets of Chicago for take two on the street circuit. The course didn’t get a fair shake in year one due to a torrential downpour. Let’s take a look at this year’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Chicago Street Course.

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NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Grant Park 165 – Chicago Street Course

Shane Van Gisbergen shocked the world last year winning this race in his first career NASCAR race. The veteran Supercars racer is back this year to defend his title and enters the weekend as the favorite.

When it comes to betting on the Chicago Street Race this year, I’m taking the Superspeedway approach. Go light on the bets and more so than most weeks. We truly don’t know what to expect after what last year’s race turned into, and while we can lean on road course stats, a street circuit isn’t an exact comparison.

Grant Park 165 Odds

Shane Van Gisbergen +550
Kyle Larson +600
Christopher Bell +600
Tyler Reddick +600
Chase Elliott +700
Martin Truex Jr +1300
Michael McDowell +1300
AJ Allmendinger +1400
William Byron +1500
Chris Buescher +1500
Ty Gibbs +1600
Denny Hamlin +2200
Ross Chastain +2500
Ryan Blaney +3000
Kyle Busch +3000
Daniel Suarez +3000
Austin Cindric +3500
Joey Logano +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Justin Haley +6000
Brad Keselowski +10000
Chase Briscoe +10000
Carson Hocevar +12500
Todd Gilliland +12500
Joey Hand +12500
Noah Gragson +15000
Zane Smith +20000
Josh Berry +20000
Bubba Wallace +20000
Erik Jones +20000
Corey Lajoie +25000
Ryan Preece +30000
Austin Hill +30000
Austin Dillion +50000
Ricky Stenhouse +50000
John H Nemechek +50000
Harrison Burton +50000
Kaz Grala +50000
Daniel Hemric +100000
Josh Bilicki +100000

Grant Park 165 Best Bets

Chris Buscher Over Martin Truex Jr (+105)

This one seems a little mispriced, and Chris Buscher should be the favorite here. We’ll take it while we can, though! Martin Truex Jr. has already announced his retirement from full-time competition after this season.

How much do we think he really cares about this street race? He’s good on tracks like Sonoma and Watkins Glen, which he’s been going to for 20+ years. The newer road courses, though, not so much.

Buscher, on the other hand, is a bit of a road course consistency king. Buscher has 14, yes, that’s right. 14 top 11 finishes in a row on road courses in the NASCAR Cup Series. March of 2022, the first road course race in the NextGen era, was the last time he wasn’t top 11.

I don’t count Chicago as a road course, but you’ll never guess where he finished here last year: 10th place. So, in Buscher, you are getting a consistent top-10 guy, and Truex is much more likely to have a down day than Buscher. Easy matchup for me here.

Justin Haley Top 10 (+500)

Haley is a driver I’m very conflicted about this week. Last year, he managed to finish second place after leading 23 laps. I don’t want to sink too much stock into that given all the circumstances from last year’s race, but it’s notable that once he got track position, he kept it.

This team has been spot-on this year with playing the track position game and making it work out for them. Haley has also taken advantage of the chaos to score good runs, imagine if this race has a late caution and we see another five overtimes, someone like Haley could benefit big time.

Haley’s road course stats are hit-and-miss, but he’s shown some flashes, especially in the Xfinity series. He’s also shown great ability on the shorter, heavier braking ovals, skills that could translate to this street circuit.

Winning Manufacturer Chevy (+100)

Honestly, I’m a little surprised Chevy isn’t a worse price for the bettor in this case. While Ford at 4/1 may be slightly temping, and they’ve got drivers capable of winning, nobody stands out big time, and their first driver on the odds board is the seventh driver listed in Michael McDowell.

Toyota only has eight cars in the race, and while they have two of the favorites, I’d say only three Toyotas have a legitimate shot to win this race.

For Chevrolet, you get Van Gisbergen, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, AJ Allmendinger, and William Byron, all drivers who have won on road courses and are very capable of winning this race. Along with a handful of other guys who could get it done. Chevy gives you the most options and also the best options.

AJ Allmendinger to Win (+1400)

AJ is a road course specialist. It’s been where he’s thrived over his career, and he’s got street course experience as well through his travels. He’s in the same equipment (Kaulig) as SVG, but almost three times the price. AJ’s had more downs than ups lately, but we all know what he’s capable of, and he’s simply mispriced here.

Ty Gibbs to Win (+1600)

Another driver I love this week, at his price, is Ty Gibbs. The young stud has been a force to be reckoned with since his first start at the Xfinity Series level, where he won on a road course.

Like AJ, Gibbs will race in Saturday’s Xfinity race which will be helpful in giving him extra track time. This could be the week Gibbs gets his first Cup Series trophy.

 

 

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