NASCAR heads out to wine country for left and right turns this week. Sonoma Raceway (formerly known as Sears Point International Raceway) has been on the NASCAR schedule since 1989 (no 2020 race). With 12 turns and 160 feet in elevation change, the 1.99-mile course provides a hilly and challenging course in the heart of wine country. Let’s take a look at this week’s Underdog NASCAR fantasy picks.
Last week, Austin Cindric threw a wrench into the NASCAR playoff picture when his teammate Ryan Blaney ran out of gas just before taking the white flag. Cindric would snap his 85-race winless streak, which dated back to his first full-time start, the 2022 Daytona 500, which he won.
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NASCAR Fantasy Picks: Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway Underdog Fantasy
Sonoma has undergone a repave, with reports from the tire test of 2.5 second fastest laps than what was run in 2023. Ross Chastain noted, “I saw some (tire) falloff; actually, more than I thought.” SMI used a special mix that is expected to create a more “worn-in” surface more quickly, similar to what was recently done at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Martin Truex Jr Better Than 5.5
They’ve considered renaming this Martin Truex Jr Raceway, ok they haven’t, but maybe they should. Truex has won three of the last five races at Sonoma, with a third-place finish in 2019. A 26th-place finish in 2022 was the outlier, when Toyota was struggling on road courses in the first race of the NextGen Era is the only outlier.
At Sonoma since 2016 minus 2022 (JGR junk, in 13th but pitted late hoping to catch a lucky break caution that never materialized) and 2017 where his engine blew up, Martin Truex Jr. has a 2.2 average finish.
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) June 4, 2024
Truex at road courses, in general, has been okay, but Sonoma is a different track for drivers. More than any other road course on the circuit, it matters more what you’ve done at Sonoma than the other road courses. Truex has four wins at Sonoma, with three different car owners. He won for Michael Waltrip Racing, Furniture Row Motorsports, and twice with Joe Gibbs Racing, including last season. Truex is my favorite NASCAR fantasy pick at Sonoma.
Chris Buescher Better Than 9.5
Only Chase Elliott (5.0) has a better average finish than Chris Buescher (7.3) in the last three trips to Sonoma Raceway. In the two races in the NextGen era, which is also the Keselowski era in Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Buescher finished second and fourth.
Not only has Buescher been good at Sonoma, but he’s also been great at road courses in general. He’s finished inside of the Top 11 in 11 straight road course races. Better than 9.5 in nine of those 11 races. You are getting a driver who is consistently good at road courses and has been exceptional the last two times at Sonoma. Sign me up.
Chase Elliott Better Than 7.5
Nobody has a better average finish at Sonoma since 2021 than Chase Elliott (5.0). NASCAR’s most popular driver has finished fifth, eighth, and second in the last three races here. Toss out an engine issue in 2019, where Elliott was running third when his engine let go, and Elliott has finished top eight in every race here since 2017.
Elliott has seven career wins on road courses, and while he hasn’t notched a win in the NextGen car, it hasn’t stopped him from being competitive on road courses, especially at Sonoma. In seven of his 11 NextGen road course starts, Elliott has finished inside the top 10.
Daniel Suarez Worse Than 11.5
Mi Amigo won this race in 2022, so you may wonder why we’re going against him here. The answer is simple: since 2021, his average finish at Sonoma has been 11.7, and that includes his win. The win here seems to be more of an outlier than anything. In six starts at this track, Suarez only has one finish better than 12th, and his average finish over the five races he didn’t win is only 16.4.
In his 29 career road course stats, Suarez has only finished better than 11.5 six times. Zooming in on his last nine road course starts, he only has two finishes better than 22nd. Suarez won at Atlanta earlier this season, but per Ifantasyrace.com, in 10 of his last 11 races this season, Suarez has finished 18th or worse. Don’t let one good race cloud your judgment here.
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