Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for May 21. Go here for MLB World Series odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for May 21. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – May 21
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
First Pitch – 6:40 pm EST
Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Broadcast – MLB TV
Maybe this game is the most obvious NRFI spot on the slate today, but I still think there’s value on the numbers the books are showing. The pitching matchup here is stellar. Ranger Suarez has been unstoppable for this Phillies team.
He’s 8-0 on the season and has just a 1.37 ERA. Jon Gray hasn’t been much worse for the Rangers, with a 9.00 K/9 rate and a 2.08 ERA. Neither of these guys are going to allow many runs, never mind many first inning runs.
While we’re heavily leaning on the pitching here, the early run-scoring hasn’t been great for either of these teams either. The Phillies are the best scoring team in the first inning on the year, and the Rangers rank 10th, but they have been slow going since the weekend. In the last three games for each team, they’ve combined for just one first inning run. With the arms on the mound Tuesday, I can’t imagine things getting better.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for May 21: No (-120)
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
First Pitch – 7:05 pm EST
Yankee Stadium – Bronx, New York
Broadcast – MLB TV
The matchup in the Bronx today features another pair of pitchers I’m high on – albeit ones with a bit smaller of a profile. Bryan Woo has thrown 9.1 innings since returning to Seattle. In that time, he’s allowed just one run and looked spectacular.
Clarke Schmidt has gone 50.2 innings and picked up 55 strikeouts. He’s coming off back-to-back scoreless outings and has just a 2.49 ERA. You have to like the chances for a low-scoring game early on here.
While the Yankees have had a potent offense as of late, and that’s something for our NRFI to worry about, the Mariners have been awful. They rank 28th in the majors in first inning runs per game (0.29) and 26th in total runs (3.79).
Given that, we can feel safe with the Yankees keeping them at bay. That means we’re only out here sweating a guy who has allowed just a single run all year.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for May 21: No (-115)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI picks for May 21, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.