Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for April 28. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for April 28.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – April 28
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 3:30 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – ABC
Over the three games in this series, the Mavericks have had the majority of succes on the tip and the first buckets. They’ve won two out of three tips, and they’ve also scored first two out of three times. That shouldn’t be a surprise as they were a top five team in the league when it comes to scoring first. They also have a 17.0% regularly season lead on the tip off win percentage over the Clippers. The only surprise there might be that they haven’t won all three in either category.
It’s hard to look anywhere, but Luka Doncic when looking for a first bucket on the Mavericks. He has such a large share of their early shot attempts. However, he is listed as a game time decision on Sunday, which could be an opportunity to look for a contrarian play. Daniel Gafford has one of the team’s first three shot attempts in each of the last two games. He also only really takes high percentage shots. Let’s take a look at him for this one.
First FG Bet for April 28: Daniel Gafford (+550)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Tipoff – 9:30 pm EST
Footprint Center – Phoenix, Arizona
Broadcast – TNT
Usually I lean to teams that are regularly winning tipoffs. The tip winner during the regular season won 64.6% of the first field goals. However, we’re going to buck the trend on this one. Yusuf Nurkic is one of the best tip guys in the league. He’s won two out of three tips in this series. However, the Suns have none of the first buckets – half due to their shot selection and half due to the sharp defense of the Timberwolves. I’ll say that they find a way to continue it here.
Jaden McDaniels has taken one of Minnesota’s first three shots in each game of the series. In fact, he took two of the first three in the last game. This has been an increasing trend down the stretch of the season. Since March 1st, McDaniels has scored five first buckets for the Timberwolves, which accounts for one-third of all of their scores in that time.
First FG Bet for April 28: Jaden McDaniels (+950)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for April 28, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
