The UFC is back, baby! We survived a Saturday without the UFC last week, but we’ve got ourselves a UFC Apex Fight Night this weekend. And, most importantly, we don’t have middling middleweights in the main event! Here are my UFC Vegas 91 predictions and best bets.
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UFC Vegas 91 Predictions & Best Bets
Matheus Nicolau (-180) vs. Alex Perez
Our aforementioned main event is a flyweight fight, pitting Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez – not the greatest matchup, as both guys are coming off of losses. And Perez is stepping in on short notice, as well.
The short notice aspect – plus the fact that Perez has lost three straight and hasn’t won a fight since June 2020 – makes Nicolau the wise pick here. He was on a nice roll until getting knocked out by Brandon Royval in his last fight. I think he’s got the skill advantage here to get a bounce-back win.
Bogdan Guskov (+180) vs. Ryan Spann
In the co-main event, a light heavyweight fight, let’s go with a nice-sized dog in Bogdan Guskov. And if +180 isn’t a good enough line for you, I can make it even better.
Ryan Spann seems to always disappoint in fights (or maybe I expect too much from him), so I can’t back him here, especially at -190. Guskov is going to be a much better – and much more powerful – striker in this matchup. So, if you want even more money, take Guskov via T/KO at +230. He’s won 13 of his 15 pro fights via knockout, and Spann has been KO’d three times in his career.
Jhonata Diniz (-250) vs. Austen Lane
Let’s move to a heavyweight fight next, with newcomer Jhonata Diniz fighting former NFL player Austen Lane. While Diniz is debuting in the UFC, and only has six professional MMA fights on his resume, he’s a champion kickboxer, with 29 fights in that realm under his belt.
And I think he’s going to use his powerful, technical striking to take care of Lane in this fight. I don’t see Lane trying to grapple and take the fight to the mat, so he’s probably going to get pieced up on the feet by Diniz.
Austin Hubbard (+150) vs. Michal Figlak
The other fighter named Austin on the fight card, Austin Hubbard, I’m going to back as a live dog. My MMA Gambling Podcast cohost Gumby expected Hubbard to be a big favorite in this fight, so we’re being gifted a line here.
Hubbard is much more experienced than Michal Figlak, plus I think he is better at striking and grappling. Plus, Figlak has been out of action since September 2022 – ring rust is a real thing.
Ivana Petrovic (-470) vs. Liang Na
Ivana Petrovic is being given a layup in her second UFC fight after losing her debut against a very tough opponent, Karine Silva. Liang Na is not on that level.
Liang has been TKO’d in all three of her UFC fights, and Petrovic is going to be able to outstrike her in this matchup. She can probably outgrapple her, also, if she chooses to.
If you’d like even more information on UFC Vegas 91, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping five episodes weekly to make you the smartest guy at the bar.