Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for April 21.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – April 21
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tipoff – 3:30 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – ABC
Daniel Gafford will be taking the jump for the Mavericks and he was pretty terrible at it over the course of the year. He won just 25 of the 66 tips that he took (37.9%). While that puts him near the bottom of the league, it also puts him a full 10.0% ahead of Ivica Zubac on the season. Zubac won just 19 of the 68 tips he took, which gives the advantage to the Mavericks. With the tip winner in the regular season getting 64.6% of the first buckets, that’s a helpful piece of information.
We can further lean to the Mavericks when we see that, despite having sub-par jumping numbers, they ranked in the top five in the NBA in scoring the first field goal. The Clippers meanwhile were 29th in the league – only better than the Jazz.
As we look to the Mavericks, the chalk play here is Luka Doncic. Not only is he the team’s star, but he scored three of their last seven first buckets. However, there’s another player on the team that can boast that same stat and has a wildly higher line here. PJ Washington not only had three of the last seven first bucket for Dallas, but two even came when they lost the tip. With the number where it is, he’s worth a roll of the dice.
First FG Bet for April 21: PJ Washington (+950)
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – TNT
The tip data is even more clear here. Brook Lopez is grabbing the first possession at a 58.0% clip on the year, which puts him 14.4% ahead of Myles Turner. If that’s not enough to get behind Milwaukee outright, you can consider that they, like the Mavericks, are a top five team in the league when it comes to scoring first. The Pacers, meanwhile, rank 25th in grabbing the first score.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo doubtful for Sunday’s action, there’s really only one other name to look to here. In the last dozen successes, Giannis had four first buckets, Damian Lillard had four first buckets, and the rest of the Bucks had the other four. With their best scorer on the mend, I expect Dame to come out and try to establish himself as a force early.
First FG Bet for April 21: Damian Lillard (+475)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for April 21, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
