NASCAR heads to Lincoln, Alabama, this week to take on the 2.66-mile Superspeedway track, which will be packed with action from the drip of the green until the checkered flag flies. Here’s a look at the Geico 500 at Talladega picks, odds, and best bets.
Go here for more NASCAR content!
NASCAR Geico 500 at Talladega Odds, Picks and Best Bets
First, though, last week, NASCAR’s most popular driver, Chase Elliott, snapped his 42-race winless streak to cap off an exciting weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. Saturday’s Xfinity Series race saw the second-closest finish in series history, with 0.002 seconds separating first and second place.
Sound that SIREEEEEEN everything is bigger in Texas baby!
Elliott 16/1 ✅
Byron top 3 +210 ✅
Bubba better 6.5 -115 ✅
Hocevar group F +220 ✅
Kez top 10 +140 ✅
Over 11.5 lap leaders -115 ✅ https://t.co/1AtwmiV7wO— NASCAR Gambling Podcast (@NascarGambling) April 14, 2024
On to betting at Talladega! NASCAR’s superspeedways are the toughest but most fun races to bet on. We all know how these races can go and the chaos involved when the “Big One” happens.
As always, you should gamble responsibly, but at places like Talladega, just go in with the mindset that you are going to lose it all and be happy when something hits! That being said, there are a lot of trends and advantages to find in Superspeedway betting, and bets with bigger odds hit more often, which is always exciting.
NASCAR Geico 500 at Talladega Odds
Denny Hamlin +1000
William Byron +1000
Ryan Blaney +1000
Brad Keselowski +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Ross Chastain +1200
Kyle Busch +1500
Kyle Larson +1600
Christopher Bell +1600
Bubba Wallace +1600
Ty Gibbs +1800
Tyler Reddick +2000
Chris Buescher +2000
Martin Truex Jr +2000
Alex Bowman +2500
Daniel Suarez +3000
Austin Dillion +3000
Austin Cindric +3000
Erik Jones +3000
Michael McDowell +3500
Ricky Stenhouse +3500
Chase Briscoe +4000
Todd Gilliland +5000
Noah Gragson +5000
Ryan Preece +6000
Corey Lajoie +6000
Josh Berry +6500
Justin Haley +8000
Shane Van Gisbergen +8000
Carson Hocevar +8000
Zane Smith +8000
John Hunter Nemechek +8000
Harrison Burton +10000
Daniel Hemric +10000
Anthony Alfredo +15000
Cody Ware +30000
BJ McLeod +30000
NASCAR Geico 500 at Talladega Picks and Best Bets
Kyle Larson Finishing Position Over 12.5 (-120)
Caesars has been offering these finishing position bets this season, and they are a lot of fun. On the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, we’ve got one rule when it comes to betting on superspeedways, and that rule is to fade Kyle Larson. Larson is one of the greatest drivers in the entire world, in NASCAR, on the dirt track, at the local Go-Kart track and we’re about to see it again when he runs the Indy 500.
However, one thing Larson just can’t seem to figure out is superspeedways. Larson has admitted they aren’t his favorite, and he can’t seem to get the hang of them. In his 43 career Cup Series starts on Superspeedways (Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta since 2022), Larson has just one career top-five finish. In his last eight races at Talladega, Larson has just two finishes better than 18th place. Through 18 career starts, he’s only finished better than 12.5 five times.
“I’m not optimistic, the only thing im optimistic about coming here is crashing.”
Talladega done broke Kyle Larson throughout the years. this lil bit of clips i gathered up is funny asf 😭😭.
🎥: @Frontstretch pic.twitter.com/GtqU4yziq3
— 𝖈𝖊𝖘𝖆𝖗 🏁 (@ohthatscesarr) October 2, 2022
Larson tends to look good during the race, mixing it up with the leaders and running well. He just can’t ever seem to avoid the trouble, sometimes it waits until overtime to get him, it just seems to always find him and is something we can count on way more times than we can’t.
Erik Jones to Win Group “F” (Caesars) (+320)
It’s hard to believe Erik Jones is the underdog in this group, but he is. Jones is matched up against Alex Bowman, Martin Truex Jr, and Tyler Reddick in this one. At any other track, you likely wouldn’t consider Jones here. At Talladega, though, Jones is someone who always has to be on the radar.
While he finished a subpar 26th last time at Talladega, his previous four races looked like this. 6th, 6th, 6th, and 9th place finishes. He finished 27th in April of 2021, and his two finishes before that were 2nd and 5th. That Jones boy has something figured out at Talladega.
When it comes to the drivers he’s matched up against in this group, Jones has beaten Bowman seven times in a row at Talladega. Against Martin Truex Jr, Jones has had the better finish in eight of the last 11 matchups here at Talladega.
In Reddick’s eight starts at Talladega, only twice has he gotten the better of Jones. Nobody knows who the wrecks will claim, but Jones seems to come out on the right side more than he doesn’t.
Michael McDowell Top 10 Finish (+260)
Let us not forget how good of a superspeedway racer the 2021 Daytona 500 champion is. Last year, Talladega wasn’t kind to McDowell, and that’ll happen sometimes. In 2023, the driver of the #34 Front Row Motorsports Ford finished 21st and 34th. However, in 2022, the 39-year-old driver finished third and eighth.
McDowell has four top-10 finishes at Talladega in his last nine starts at the track. He has 23 career Cup Series starts in which he ran the race without mechanical issues. In those 23 starts, he’s been running at the end of the race 17 times.
If you want to bet on superspeedways, one of the most important things is that the driver needs to be running at the end of the race. That’s what makes McDowell a good Talladega pick. If they are running, they’ve likely got a shot!
Chase Elliott to Win (+1200)
I’m taking the six-time running most popular driver and 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion to win in back-to-back weeks. Winning back-to-back in the Cup Series is hard. It’s even harder when one of those is a chaotic Superspeedway. Chase is a streaky driver, when he’s doing bad, it’s a bad streak, when he’s doing good, it’s usually a pretty hot streak. All the momentum is riding with the #9 Hendrick Chevrolet right now.
He’s also pretty good at Talladega. In 16 starts at the track, twice Elliott has found victory lane. In half of those starts, he’s been inside the top 10, and if you are top 19 at the end of the race, you have a chance to win it. 13 of those 16 starts, he’s still been running at the end, and he has a 6.75 average finish in his last four races here.
More NASCAR Content
Be sure to tune into the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST for more bets for the NASCAR Cup, Xfinity, and Truck Series, along with F1 and IndyCar bets, Underdog picks, DFS, and more!
