The UFL is entering its third week and the opportunity to make money on it is still there. Last week wasn’t great, going 1-1-1 in best bets. I’ve learned we can’t trust St. Louis or DC until they look better on the field. The three UFL teams (Stallions, Panthers, and Showboats) are 2-1 against the XFL teams. Let’s see what we can find for UFL Week 3 picks and best bets.
Just to add to the fun, we’re going to start a running bank total of fake money. Each week, there will be $10,000 in bets. Because who doesn’t have $10,000 lying around to bet on the UFL? I’m not telling you to bet $10K. I’m just showing you how I would split the unit on these games.
UFL Week 3 Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
DC Defenders @ Arlington Renegades (-1), Total: 43
The Defenders got their first win last week, although it was closer than I thought it was going to be. Arlington took another loss to start the year 0-2. Which of these two quarterbacks that I’m always hating on can best the other? Jordan Ta’amu and Luis Perez have both shown the ability to move the ball down the field but have also made one too many mistakes.
It’s hard to decide which route to take for my UFL Week 3 picks in this one. However, the Renegades played the Battlehawks very closely in the Battledome. Something tells me they are going to put up a fight when they return home to Arlington. The Defenders desperately miss Abram Smith and the run game that powered their team last year.
UFL Week 3 Best Bet: Arlington (-1) $1,500
Memphis Showboats @ Birmingham Stallions (-7), Total: 41
The Birmingham Stallions were slowed just a little bit last week. They came away with the win, but it did show how a really good defense can slow their offensive attack down. I wouldn’t put the Showboats defense on the same line as the Panthers, but they’re still a good defense.
Memphis finally got the offense going and dominated for the majority of the game in yardage, time of possession, and score. It wasn’t until they gave up a score and allowed the 4th and 12 in place of an onside kick that they were behind. Case Cookus looked better in Week 2 than he did in Week 1. In fact, the entire offense looked better and more efficient.
Still, the Stallions did end up beating that better defense by seven points. Better defense, worse offense. You can weigh how those stack up all you want.
Regardless of how you do your math, the Stallions are a much better team. I do think things get easier for the Showboats going forward. I don’t necessarily like the spread in this UFL Week 3 picks post.
Seven is a weird number in this league. You have to remember it isn’t touchdowns with extra points. A nine-point play can happen, and the Showboats may be able to expose some of the things the Panthers did with some deep passing.
The Stallions did bottle up Panthers’ Wes Hills to make EJ Perry beat them. You can’t do that against the Showboats because Cookus is much better.
UFL Week 3 Best Bet: Under 41 total points – defensive battle leads to low points – $3,500
Houston Roughnecks @ Michigan Panthers (-2), Total: 38
You could look at the offensive stats of these two teams and think they may be the two worst offenses in the league. You also may be right. Houston did receive a little pop and flare when Reid Sinnett came in for the injured Guarantano.
On the other side of the ball, E.J. Perry had a really nice long touchdown pass last week. That concludes his passing highlights for the year.
However, the Michigan Panthers may not be great at throwing. They can run the ball, their defense can be suffocating, and they can make 60+ yard field goals. Sometimes, especially in spring leagues, that’s all you need. They may be more on the conservative side, but they are fielding one of, if not the best, defense and special teams combo in the league.
The Roughnecks have had a rough go at it (see what I did there?). Their offensive line has not been able to block very well. Sinnett has some ability to extend plays and that could benefit them.
Still, I think this defense is too damned good to fade. They beat the Battlehawks, they hung around with the Stallions, and now they’ll beat the Roughnecks.
UFL Week 3 Best Bet: Panthers (-2) $2,500
St. Louis Battlehawks (-1) @ San Antonio Brahmas, Total: 42
The Battlehawks were one of the best teams in the XFL last year. They made the playoffs and just barely lost a game to the Defenders to miss the Championship. This year has been a different story. A road loss in Michigan to the Panthers to start the year, and then they were barely able to beat 0-2 Arlington in the Battledome.
The Brahmas may not have always looked like the best team on the field, but they’ve managed to pull away with a 2-0 start. AJ Smith’s offense from last year has started fast and probably has two more weeks before defenses start figuring out how to stop them. Chase Garbers has been impressive and Jontre Kirklin has picked right back up in Smith’s offense after getting injured last year.
This should be a close game. However, last week, I learned not to bet on the Battlehawks until they can prove something. Their home-field advantage of 40,000+ fans should have given them much more than a three-point win over Arlington. Therefore, they’re on my fade list for now.
UFL Week 3 Best Bet: Brahmas (+1) $2,000