The UFC is back running their home gym, the UFC Apex, this Saturday, so you know what that means. A middleweight main event!! Not just any middleweight main event, but a middleweight rematch that no one was looking for. Only one more week until UFC 300 – we can make it. Here are my UFC Vegas 90 predictions and best bets.
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UFC Vegas 90 Predictions & Best Bets
Brendan Allen (-205) vs. Chris Curtis
This is the aforementioned middleweight main event rematch. In Part 1, back in December 2021, Chris Curtis TKO’d Brendan Allen in the second round. However, since then, Allen hasn’t lost again, winning six straight fights, the last four via submission. Meanwhile, Curtis has alternated losses with wins.
Normally I don’t do this, but I’m going with the loser of the first fight to win the second. Allen has looked amazing since that loss, while Curtis has not. I like Allen’s momentum and, obviously, his grappling edge. However, Curtis could still knock him out, and I’m not a big fan of this line.
Alexander Hernandez (-200) vs. Damon Jackson
Damon Jackson had a nice late-career run, going there for a bit, but he has since lost two straight fights. I don’t like his chances in this featherweight co-main event against Alexander Hernandez.
Hernandez has been a disappointment in the UFC, going 6-6, but he’s four years younger than Jackson and is a way better and more dangerous striker. I think ‘The Great Ape’ (bad nickname) gets the job done on Saturday.
Morgan Charriere (-115) vs. Chepe Mariscal
Now, this is a really intriguing bout between two featherweight up-and-comers, France’s Morgan Charriere and American Chepe Mariscal. Both guys are dangerous and have fought top competition in their careers.
I’m leaning towards Charriere in this tight one. He’s the better and more powerful striker and has more high-level experience despite being three years younger than Mariscal. It should be a fun fight, regardless of the outcome.
Pierra Rodriguez (-130) vs. Cynthia Calvillo
I don’t get why the odds for this fight are as close as they are or why anyone could put their money behind Cynthia Calvillo at this point. Formerly a decent-looking prospect, Calvillo has lost five straight fights, hasn’t fought in a year, and hasn’t won since June 2020.
Additionally, Calvillo has been bouncing between flyweight and strawweight after missing weight multiple times at 115 pounds. Despite that, she’s back at strawweight on Saturday. Rodriguez, five years her junior, should be the much better and more dangerous striker in this matchup.
Cesar Almeida (+130) vs. Dylan Budka
Maybe Cesar Almeida is the underdog here because he’s only 4-0 as a professional MMA fighter. However, he has almost 60 pro kickboxing fights on his resume and numerous championships in that realm on his mantle.
Plus, Dylan Budka isn’t exactly a world-beater, and he’s stepping into this middleweight fight on short notice. Almeida is going to be the better striker here and has that rare one-touch knockout power.
If you’d like even more information on UFC Vegas 90, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping four episodes weekly to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
