Last night’s slate was remarkably tough to cap and write up, so naturally, it goes 2-0-1. Tyler Kolek just cleared the 16.5 points, and Jeremy Roach had more than 2.0 turnovers. We were one more Zakai Ziegler assist from a full sweep. Zeigler had exactly six assists and we push. We get two Elite Eight games today, and there are a few square numbers to take advantage of. Let’s dive into my Underdog Fantasy college basketball March Madness picks for March 29.
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Underdog Fantasy College Basketball Picks March 30
Matthew Dewoskin Underdog Fantasy College Basketball Pick Em Record (Est 3/1/2024)
All Pick Em Selections: 50-29-2 (63.2%)
Spicy Multiplier Picks: 3-0 (100%)
Perfect 3-0 Pick Em Entries: 5-22 (+1.2 units)
Alex Karaban (Connecticut) Lower Than 18.5 Points+Rebounds
This is our ‘trends’ play of the night. Connecticut forward Alex Karaban enters the Elite Eight averaging 13.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. However, he’s missed going higher than 18.5 points and rebounds in six straight games. That includes all three tournament games.
Illinois is surprisingly good at limiting opponent rebounds. In the NCAA tournament, they’ve limited opponents to shooting only 40.2% from the field.
The play here is the trend. Karaban’s workload is down slightly in the tournament, and he’s yet to commit a foul or give up a turnover. This would indicate that he’s playing away from paint on offense and defense a bit more. Assuming that continues, he should continue to go lower on his points and rebounds totals.
Make sure you go lower on Karaban’s points and rebounds total in your Underdog Fantasy college basketball pick’em entry for March 30.
Ian Schieffelin (Clemson) Higher Than 11.5 Points
This is the strongest play on the card. Clemson forward Ian Schieffelin is averaging 9.9 points per game entering the Elite Eight matchup with Alabama. However, Schieffelin has 11.5 points in two of his three NCAA tournament games.
Schieffelin’s only miss on going higher than 11.5 points came against Baylor. He only managed 11 points against the Bears but cleared against Arizona and New Mexico. All three teams are superior defensively to Alabama.
Schieffelin should see an increase in his usage rate against the Crimson Tide and go higher on his points total. He’s gone higher than 11.5 points in seven out of 11 games in which he’s played more than 30 minutes.
Rylan Griffen (Alabama) Lower Than 4.5 Rebounds+Assists
This is another ‘trend’ play, but there’s also a bit of basketball logic behind it, too. Entering the Elite Eight, Rylan Girffen is averaging 3.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game.
Griffen has gone lower than 4.5 rebounds and assists in two out of three tournament games and four of his last six.
Clemson is one of the best teams in the nation in preventing the opposition from racking up assists. The Tigers also only allowed 33.2 opponent rebounds this year. Griffen will be limited in his opportunities and hasn’t taken advantage of late. He’s also coming off a crazy shooting game, so there’s a non-zero chance that he looks to chuck it from deep instead of looking for a pass.
Griffen going lower on his rebounds and assists total is one of the better numbers to have in your Underdog Fantasy college basketball entry for March 30.
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for the 2023-24 season, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
