We’re back with a winning card after a one-day losing streak. Also, we’re still perfect on spicy plays for the year, with Dylan Addae-Wuse clearing 1.5 threes made against UNLV. The NIT has been quietly fire, but you know what is loudly fire? The Sweet Sixteen. We’ve found a few square numbers for the first four Sweet Sixteen games, and we’ve got picks you need to make. Let’s dive into my Underdog Fantasy college basketball March Madness picks for March 28.
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Underdog Fantasy College Basketball Picks March 28
Matthew Dewoskin Underdog Fantasy College Basketball Pick Em Record (Est 3/1/2024)
All Pick Em Selections: 46-28-1 (62.1%)
Spicy Multiplier Picks: 3-0 (100%)
Perfect 3-0 Pick Em Entries: 5-20 (+1.4 units)
Armando Bacot (North Carolina) Higher Than 16.5 Points
North Carolina forward Armando Bacot enters the Sweet Sixteen averaging 14.4 points per game. Bacot has cleared 16.5 points in four straight games and hasn’t played fewer than 32 minutes over that stretch.
North Carolina draws the Alabama Crimson Tide for the round of 16. Please check the Alabama roster right now and point to the person capable of handling Bacot in the post. Go ahead. We can wait. There’s no one on the Crimson Tide roster who can defend Armando Bacot’s size, strength, or post moves.
Let’s say the Crimson Tide just foul Bacot whenever he touches the ball. They could. However, Bacot is shooting 78.1% from the line this year. He’s not even close to the same liability from the free throw line that he was earlier in his career.
We’ve got a veteran player in an important game. He’s already seeing an increased usage rate. Oh, and the team he’s playing against has no hope of guarding him. Bacot clears 16.5 on Thursday. Get him in your Underdog Fantasy Pick’em entry for March 28. This might be one of the safest plays this weekend.
Tamin Lipsey (Iowa State) Higher Than 20.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
Iowa State point guard Tamin Lipsey is coming into this game, averaging 12.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game this season. He’s cleared 20.5 PRA in four of his last five games.
This line feels stinky, but this is a case of diving into the stink. Lipsey could play 40 minutes in a game that should be an absolute battle, and the Illinois defense should provide plenty of chances to compile stats.
Illinois is 210th in the nation in three-point percentage against this year, so Lipsey should be able to bang in a couple of threes. The Fighting Illini have averaged 15.0 assists against over their last three games, so Lipsey should be able to distribute.
Lipsey’s PRA is this low for this game because it’s essentially his average for the season. He’ll see increased usage and should have no trouble clearing his PRA total in a game that he’ll need to produce in. His 12.5 points total and SPICY 1.5 threes made are also in play.
Joseph Girard (Clemson) Lower Than 20.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
Clemson’s Joseph Girard enters the Sweet Sixteen averaging 15.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game this year. That’s probably where this number comes from, but he’s failed to clear 20.5 PRA in three of his last four matchups. That includes both tournament games.
Arizona has tightened up their perimeter defense over their last few games. In their last three, the Wildcats are only allowing opponents to make 26.7% of their three-pointers. The three-ball is a key component of Girard’s game, and he’ll likely struggle to get clean looks.
Also, Arizona is 48th in the nation in rebounds allowed. If there are boards to be had, they’re probably not ending up in Girard’s hands. There’s going to be some big, angry men playing down low in this one. Girard, at 6’2″ and 189 lbs., probably won’t be among the trees.
The calculus here is simple. Arizona can defend the perimeter, and that’s where Girard lives. Girard also doesn’t distribute or grab enough rebounds to make this number make sense. Look to go lower on Girard’s PRA in your Underdog Fantasy college basketball pick’em entry for March 28.
The College Basketball Experience
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