Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 22.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 22
Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Little Caesars Arena – Detroit, Michigan
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The first field goal numbers for the Pistons on the year are pretty solid. They are getting the first score 52.2% of the time and sit in 11th place in the NBA in that category. Unfortunately for them, they’ll be up against the league frontrunners in scoring first. The Celtics will have a 11.6% advantage over Detroit in getting the first bucket.
It’s not just the first bucket that leads to the Celtics play here. They’re also way better on the tip. The Celtics are 3rd in the league in tip win percentage and hold a 24.6% advantage over the Pistons.
So if we’re leaning to the Celtics, we have a lot of choices. However, there are a lot of reasons to disqualify those choices too. Derrick White scored first last game, which is just his second first bucket on the year. It’d be an anomaly for to go two in a row. Jrue Holiday is out. Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis are both on the injury report and could miss the game. By process of elimination, you almost have to take Jayson Tatum.
First FG Bet for March 22: Jayson Tatum (+450)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Minnesota Tomberwolves
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Target Center – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Cavaliers have a secret weapon when it comes to scoring first, and his name is Jarrett Allen. He’s grabbing 75.0% of his tips, which only trails Kristaps Porzingis amonst jump guys with at least 20 jumps. When you add in that Cleveland is 8.7% better than the Timberwolves at getting the first bucket, it would be silly to look anywhere other than to a Cavalier on Friday.
With all the players hurt on the Cavaliers, I keep going back to the Isaac Okoro well. It’s come up dry the last two times I’ve called for it, but he’s been close. Once he had a 10 foot shot blocked and the other he took two of the first three shots. They clearly like to feature him early and the odds still don’t reflect it, so we’ll head back to that well one more time.
First FG Bet for March 22: Isaac Okoro (+600)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 22, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
