Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 20.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 20
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
TD Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast – ESPN
The Bucks have strong numbers this season on the first field goal. They are ranked 5th in the NBA in success rate. However, they still pale in comparison to the Celtics. They’re 5.8% behind Boston who are the best in the league at getting the first score. There’s more than that to lean to the Celtics here too.
Kristaps Porzingis should be back in the lineup for this Wednesday’s action. He’s currently getting 76.6% of all of the tips that he takes. Brook Lopez gets just 52.2% of his efforts. As a result, the Celtics will likely get that first possession and shouldn’t squander it.
There are a lot of different options for the Celtics, but one of the chalkier ones makes the most sense here. Jaylen Brown has been getting a lot of the early looks lately. He also has 13 of the Celtics’ first scores on the year, which is good for 24.0%.
First FG Bet for March 20: Jaylen Brown (TBD)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Moda Center – Portland, Oregon
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
These two teams have both been pretty bad on the first bucket. They rank 27th and 28th respectively in the NBA – with the Blazers having a meager 0.8% lead in terms of success rate. However, there is a big advantage for the Blazers in terms of the tip. The Blazers have a 44.1% success rate on the tip, with Deandre Ayton slightly better at 56.5%. The Clippers, meanwhile, are the only team in the league getting less than 30% of the tips (29.9%).
In each of the last two games, Anfernee Simons took one of the first three shots. The Clippers have also been allowing more three-pointers as of late. They’ve allowed 15.3 per game over the last three. With that uptick, let’s ride with someone who is going to fire from deep.
First FG Bet for March 20: Anfernee Simons (+600)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 20, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
