Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for February 27. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for February 27.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – February 27
Golden State Warriors vs. Washington Wizards
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Capital One Arena – Washington, DC
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Warriors have slight advantages over the Warriors in both of the important categories that help guide the first bucket plays. They have a 4.2% advantage on the tip and a 4.5% advantage on the first field goal conversion. While that might make you want to lean to the Warriors, their numbers have come down since moving Looney to the bench and letting Draymond Green take the tips. He’s getting just 20% of the tips on the year, which would make him amongst the league’s worst.
The exact opposite trend has been in place for the Wizards. They traded Daniel Gafford who was getting just 34.0% of the tips, and now have Marvin Bagley who is getting 50.0%. He should have no issues beating Green on the tip and giving the early advantage to the Wizards.
On the season, Kyle Kuzma seems to be the hot hand for the Wizards. He has six first buckets on the year, but three of them are in the last six games. Also, those six scores puts him in a tie for first for the Wizards with Daniel Gafford (who is not with the team anymore) and Deni Avdija.
First FG Bet for February 27: Kyle Kuzma (+550)
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
TD Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast – TNT
Having Joel Embiid out has obviously been a hit for the 76ers, but it’s especially been a hit for their early game stats. Paul Reed has been taking the tips for the team and is a 11.2% downgrade from the tips Embiid was getting. Kristaps Porzingis already had nearly a 20% advantage over Embiid when it comes to the tip, so this advantage is far too much to overlook. Then when you add in that the Celtics are quite good at converting those wins (64.9% – good for 2nd in the NBA), then there is no reason not to take someone from Boston.
Jaylen Brown is the name that shows up in the first bucket data the most. Kirstaps Porzingis has been getting plenty of early shots as well. However, I’m going with a contrarian play here in Derrick White. He has taken the first shot for the Celtics in two of their last three games. I think he gets one to fall here.
First FG Bet for February 27: Derrick White (+1000)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for February 27, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
