Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for February 23. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for February 23.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – February 23
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Toyota Center – Houston, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The stats on the first bucket between these two teams are almost identical. The Suns hold the slightest of advantages at 44.6% compared to 43.6% for the Rockets. However, the big difference comes when we point to the tip. The Suns hold a 29.6% advantge in terms of winning the tipoffs. In fact, the Suns rank first in the NBA and the Rockets come in at 20th. With the tip winner getting about 64% of all first buckets, we’ll lean with the Suns on Friday.
Bradley Beal was taking a ton of the early shots for the Suns before he went out with his hamstring and nose injuries. Since that time, it’s mostly just been Jusuf Nurkic and Devin Booker – with a smattering of Kevin Durant mixed in. Three of the last four first buckets the Rockets have conceded have been to big men. As a result, we’ll ride with the chalk on Nurkic here.
First FG Bet for February 23: Jusuf Nurkic (+425)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Target Center – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcast – ESPN
On paper, this game might be pretty close. The spread is listed at 4.5 in favor of the Timberwolves. However, the data on first buckets isn’t even that close with huge advantages favoring Milwaukee.
The Bucks are 7th in the league when it comes to scoring first. That’ll give them a 13.6% advantage over the Timberwolves, who are 27th in the league in that category. It’s almost identical on the tipoff with the Bucks coming in at 8th and with a 13.5% advantage on Minnesota. Those two factors should lead to a play on the Bucks here.
In each of the Bucks last two games before the break, Damian Lillard took the first two shots. If you go to the game before those, he didn’t take the first, but he did take the third. Given the Bucks affinity for throwing up early three-point attempts, I think this trend continues and this is basically a play that he’ll get one to go in.
First FG Bet for February 23: Damien Lillard (+700)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for February 23, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
