Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for February 22.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – February 22
Brooklyn Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, Ontario
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
One of my usual best indicators on the first bucket is the tipoff. Teams who win the tip are getting the first field goal at a 64.2% clip, which is obviously not negligible. The leader here in that category is the Nets, but barely. Center Nic Claxton has a 6.8% lead in his win percentage over Jakob Poeltl. That’s not insignificant, but it’s also not enough to sway me to the Nets.
The reason being that I’m still leaning to Raptors’ players is that despite the tip lead, the Nets have a huge defecit in actual first bucket conversions. The Raptors are number one in the NBA at 69.1%, whereas the Nets sit in 20th at 46.3%. With that kind of difference and a slight advantage going to home teams on the books, you have to play someone from Toronto here.
There’s a slew of Raptors with good numbers so far this year on the first bucket – which makes sense when you consider they have 38 successes. However, the trend for the Nets is to give those up to guards. Three of their last four conceded have gone to guards. Lucky for us, the Raptors just happen to have a guard who has been getting a nice share of their first field goals as of late. Gary Trent Jr. has two of their last six and three of their last nine. Let’s get it done again here.
First FG Bet for February 22: Gary Trent Jr. (+800)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, Thunder
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
This game isn’t like our prior offering in the way that some of the stats are close. Instead, the Thunder have the Clippers blown out in every category here. They have a 53.7% success on the first buckets (10th in the league) compared to 37.4% for the Clippers (29th). They also are winning 63.0% of the tips (6th in the league). The Clippers, on the other hand, are winning just 30.2% (28th).
The Thunder have an obvious play here and that’s rookie Chet Holmgren. He’s got three of their last five successes and four of their last seven. In addition, the Clippers have a trend that favors him as well. Their last four first buckets they’ve given up are all to centers. Some of those even include outside shots, which just plays further into Chet’s hands.
First FG Bet for February 22: Chet Holmgren (+450)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for February 22, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
