Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for February 11. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for February 11.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – February 11
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Tipoff – 2:00 pm EST
Kaseya Center – Miami, Florida
Broadcast – ABC
There’s virtually no differnce between these two teams when it comes to the tip. Both of them are in the top 5 of the league in terms of grabbing the first possession. So when we’re looking for a team to tail, we want to grab the team that makes the best use out of those attempts. The Celtics have a 5.7% advantage in that department, so let’s ride that trend.
There are two players who have been getting the bulk of the early action for Boston. Kristaps Porzingis has a bunch of it, but so does Al Horford. He’s had one of the first three shots in two of the last three games. Let’s bank on him nailing one of them here.
First FG Bet for February 10: Al Horford (TBD)
Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 3:00 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The data here shows a clear advantage for the Thunder. They have a significant lead in terms of the first buckets. They rank in the top 10 and have a 5.9% lead over the Kings. The difference in the tipoff data is even more profound. The Thunder are 5th in the NBA at 65.4%, compared to the Kings who are one of just two teams with an average under 30%. With the tip winner getting 65% of the first buckets, you have to lean to the Thunder.
There are a lot of reasons to look down ballot in a Thunder game. They love to spread the early action out amongst their starting lineup. However, Chet Holmgren has taken a disproportionate amout of their early shots. He took all of their first three shots last game. He also took one of their first three in the game before.
First FG Bet for February 11: Chet Holmgren (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for February 11, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.