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NFL Conference Championship Round: Bonus Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em Plays
Patrick Mahomes Higher Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Patrick Mahomes has started in the NFL for five full seasons now. The Kansas City Chiefs have made the AFC Championship game in all five seasons.
The one difference this season is that they’ll play that championship game on the road. However, in all five AFC Championship games, Mahomes has thrown for higher than 1.5 passing touchdowns.
In his first four AFC Championship games, Mahomes threw three passing touchdowns in each. 2023 was the lone exception to three. Mahomes still passed for two touchdowns.
Mahomes is a big game player who shows up when he is most needed. He proved that yet again last week against the Buffalo Bills, where he threw two touchdown passes to Travis Kelce.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Higher Than 14.5 Receiving + Rushing Yards
In last year’s AFC Championship game, Valdes-Scantling went off big time. Eight targets led to six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in a close 23-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Last week against the Buffalo Bills, Valdes-Scantling was targeted four times with two catches for 62 yards.
Last week, teammate Mecole Hardman fumbled twice. Not to mention one into the end zone, forcing a touchback. He will likely be in the dog house this week. Valdes-scantling has proven he can be relied on in bigger moments and can reach this higher than in one play for you.
Mecole Hardman has touched the ball twice in this game. He fumbled both times.
This time he fumbles out of the endzone for a touchback.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 22, 2024
Underdog is also being generous. They set Valdes-Scantling’s receiving at 14.5 and gave us the option to add his rushing.
While in the last two seasons with the Chiefs Valdes-Scantling only has one carry for negative yards, he’s a big-play type of player and I wouldn’t put it past the Chiefs to scheme up a big-play run for him, the loss of rushing yards is more than worth the risk.
Justin Tucker has higher than 7.5 Kicking Points
While playing a kicker in your fantasy game isn’t always the sexiest option, we’re talking about arguably the greatest kicker in the history of the game.
Taking out the Week 18 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers in which the Ravens didn’t play their starters, Tucker has gone higher than 7.5 kicking points in seven games in a row.
After a slow start to the season, Tucker has reached at least seven kicking points in 12 straight games for the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens had a top-five scoring offense in 2023, averaging 28.4 points per game, trailing only the Cowboys, Dolphins, and 49ers. The Chiefs, on the other hand, were a top-two defense in points allowed per game, trailing only… the Baltimore Ravens.
The mix of the Ravens’ potent offense and the Chiefs’ stiff defense may just result in more field goal attempts for the most accurate kicker in NFL history.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Higher Than 83.5 Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St Brown has been a key piece in the Detroit Lions’ run to the NFC Championship Game this season. The receiver eclipsed 83.5 receiving yards in the five games previous to last week’s win against Tampa Bay where he had 77 yards on 14 targets and eight catches.
Jared Goff isn’t afraid to target St. Brown time and time again. In eight games this season, St. Brown has been targeted 10 or more times, including 19 targets in a blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens earlier this season.
The two most likely ways this game goes are it’s close, and Goff is using everything he can get from his explosive playmaker. Or the Lions are trailing and feeding the ball to St. Brown. If it’s a Lions blowout, they likely got there on big plays from Amon-Ra.
George Kittle Higher Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
With major questions surrounding Deebo Samuel and, if he does play, how productive he can be, George Kittle needs to step up big this week. The do-it-all tight end isn’t afraid to help the team however he needs to, and this week, he’ll have a great opportunity to get some big yards.
We’re down to FOUR teams in the #NFLPlayoffs 🤯
Each team’s dealing w/ a MAJOR injury that’s going to decide who goes to #SuperBowlLVIII & who goes 🏠
🤕 #ChiefsKingdom G Joe Thuney
🤕 #RavensFlock CB Marlon Humphrey
🤕 #AllGrit G Jonah Jackson
— Sebastian Fearon PT, DPT, CSCS, TSAC-F, OCS (@SGPNFootballDoc) January 23, 2024
Last week against the Green Bay Packers, Kittle had just four catches but turned that into 81 yards and a touchdown, including one catch of 32 yards.
Kittle has gone over the century mark on three different occasions this year, including a nine-catch 149-yard performance against the Cincinnati Bengals. Kittle has crossed the 58.5 threshold in 10 games this season.