Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 27.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 27
Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons
Tipoff – 12:00 pm EST
Little Caesars Arena – Detroit, Michigan
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The early data out of this one is really one-sided. The Pistons happen to have some of the best numbers when it comes to first buckets. They rank 4th in the NBA with a 61.4% success rate. The Wizards are just about league average, but far worse when it comes to the tip. The Wizards rank 28th in the league in grabbing the tipoff and are 20.4% behind the Pistons in that category.
In the last two games combined, three of the first six shots take by the Pistons were taken by Jaden Ivey. He’s also got two of their last four first buckets. When you combine that with the assurance that they’ll start with the ball, his odds look extra nice.
First FG Bet for January 27: Jaden Ivey (+700)
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 9:00 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Mavericks have wide margins here on both the tip and the first field goal stats. While the Mavericks are far from world-beaters on the tip, they do have a 18.8% advantage in the stats over the Kings. Their lead on the first bucket is smaller, but still 10.9%, which is enough to be sure to lean to a Mavericks player here.
The Mavericks have had six different players score the first bucket in their last six successes. Gerald Williams shot three of their first four shots last game, but has barely factored in the early game prior. One of the names I like that keeps showing up is Dereck Lively II. He score all six of their first points against the Lakers on Monday. I think he can get similar looks here.
First FG Bet for January 27: Dereck Lively II (+550)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 27, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
