Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for January 16. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 16.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 16
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
Tipoff – 9:00 pm EST
Footprint Center – Phoenix, Arizona
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The early stats on this game are all over the place. On one hand, it looks clear that the Suns will win the tip. Jusuf Nurkic is winning 66.7% of all of the tips, and Domantas Sabonis is only grabbing 30.7% of his. With the tip winner taking 65% of all the first buckets, you might think this is enough to get behind the Suns.
However, the Suns just aren’t converting their wins. While they’re winning 69.2% of tips as a team, they are only scoring the first 48.7% of the time. The Kings are on the opposite side of things at 30.7% of the tips, but getting the bucket 56.4% of the time. Their ability to get early stops and make their chances count makes me lean toward the Kings.
While Sabonis got on the board first last time, the Kings do like to let it fly from the outside early. While you might expect De’Aaron Fox to get those looks early in the game, he’s more heavily marked – leaving guys like Keegan Murray wide-open. Murray took all three of their first three shots two games ago. I like those to count here.
First FG Bet for January 16: Keegan Murray (+1000)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – TNT
The Thunder are another team like the Suns. They win a ton of tips but haven’t been stellar at converting those wins into first field goals. Luckily for them here, they’ll face one of the worst teams in the league in the early game.
The Clippers rank 29th in first field goals (35.9%) and 27th in tip percentage (also 35.9%). Being that they’ll be on the back end of a back-to-back, I expect the Thunder to take this easy.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been getting the bulk of the early action for the Thunder. He has won a ton of their first buckets and has a ton more chances. However, he’s banged up with a knee injury, and this will be the back end of a back-to-back for them as well.
As a result, I like Chet Holmgren here. The last two first buckets that the Clippers have conceded have been to bigger guys who can shoot a touch – which fits the bill perfectly.
First FG Bet for January 16: Chet Holmgren (+425)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 16, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.