Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 11.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 11
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
United Center – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – TNT
These two teams are grabbing the tip at the exact same rate. Both have played 37 games and have gotten 23 of the tips for a 62.2% average. However, the big difference in this game comes from the conversion. The Bucks have been known to let the ball fly from anywhere with any player, and as a result have just a 48.7% first bucket conversion rate. The Celtics, meanwhile, are second in the league at 64.9%. Even if the Celtics don’t come away with the tip, I like their chances to score first here.
While some of the bigger names, like Tatum and Brown, have been hot on these props as of late – I’m going down card a bit for some odds that I like. Jrue Holiday was money on these early in the season. He’s now taken the second shot for the team in back-to-back games. I think he could get an early look again against his former squad.
First FG Bet for January 11: Jrue Holiday (+750)
Portland Trailblazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Blazers come in right in the middle of the back when it comes to tips. They rank 16th in the league and are a touch under 50%. However, they are far worse in actually converting those attempts. They come in at 41.7% on the first bucket, which puts them bottom five in the league. The Thunder, with Chet Holmgren, have been one of the five best in the league at winning the tip. They’re a touch above average in converting those wins, but that should be good enough against the Blazers.
Early in the year, this was a slam dunk play with Chet Holmgren, but lately a lot of the looks have gone to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s taken one of the first three shots in each of the last three games. On Wednesday night Holmgren took the first two shots, but missed them both only for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score first for the Thunder.
First FG Bet for January 11: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+600)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 11, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
