We’ve finally made it! It’s been a long season. We’ve seen twists at every turn and turns at every twist, but the College Football Playoff National Championship is here. The bad news is that Monday, January 7th has the final college football game until next August. The good news is that we can still build an Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Underdog Fantasy College Football CFP National Championship Higher / Lower Picks
This week’s edition has four picks that make sense based on usage rates, team trends, and a little bit of good, old-fashioned gut handicapping. Let’s dive in.
CFP National Championship: Washington vs. Michigan
Michael Penix Lower 39.5 Passing Attempts
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix has only thrown 40 or more passes in only four out of 14 games this year.
Opposing offenses have only averaged 25.9 passes per game against the Michigan Wolverines. Now, that’s skewed by a few Big 10 offenses that haven’t figured out the forward pass, but it indicates how tough other teams saw the Wolverines’ pass defense.
The last time a quarterback threw 40 passes or more was in 2022, with Bryce Young slinging it 57 times against Georgia. Before that, it was Mac Jones throwing 45 times in 2021.
Penix doesn’t typically throw over 40 times per game, and the Huskies will need to find a way to keep their defense off the field. Michigan likes to wear defenses down with their ground attack and suck up time of possession.
The Wolverines will likely win the time of possession battle, but handing the ball off or letting Penix call his own number will extend their drives and give the Huskies’ defense time to recover.
Look to go lower on Penix passing attempts in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em for the National Championship.
CFP National Championship: Washington vs. Michigan
Grady Gross Higher 3.0 XP Made
Washington Huskies kicker Grady Gross is 62-for-62 in PATs this year. He’s averaged 4.4 PATs per game this year. He’s kicked four PATs or more in 10 out of 14 games this year.
The Michigan Wolverines haven’t allowed more than three PAT conversions this season, but they’ve never faced an offense like Washington’s. They allowed three PATs in back-to-back games against Maryland and Ohio State.
All the Huskies have to do is score four touchdowns in a game played indoors? Look for Gross to go higher on his PATs made in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
CFP National Championship: Michigan vs. Washington
J.J. McCarthy Higher 23.5 rushing yards
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy has only rushed for more than 24 yards in six out of 14 games this year.
He did rush for 25 yards on only three attempts against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the semi-final game last week. Michigan ran a few called runs for McCarthy, and he was successful with most of them. Look for the Wolverines to go back to the called quarterback runs, and McCarthy may need to scramble a little.
Have the Higher number on his rushing yards in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
CFP National Championship: Michigan vs. Washington
Roman Wilson Higher 48.5 Receiving Yards
Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Roman Wilson has cleared 49 receiving yards in eight out of 14 games this year. Wilson racked up 73 receiving yards on only four catches against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the CFP semi-final.
The Washington Huskies allowed 267.1 yards per game through the air this year. The Wolverines offense averaged 218.9 yards through the air this year.
At some point in the National Championship, Michigan will need to throw the ball. As much as they would love to ground and pound their way to a 7-0 win, they probably won’t. There will be a two-minute drill or a need to come back from a deficit at some point.
When they need to throw the ball, they’ll likely send a couple of balls Wilson’s way, and he should have no problem clearing 48.5 receiving yards against the big-play-prone Husky’s defense. Go higher on receiving yards in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em.
That’s a wrap for the 2023-24 college football season! Make sure to check out the Underdog Fantasy College Basketball Pick’em articles posted every day by SGPN’s very own Noah Bieniek. Take Noah’s college hoops plays, build an entry on Underdog Fantasy, and let it ride!
