Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 7.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 7
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Phoenix Suns
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Footprint Center – Phoenix, Arizona
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
These two teams are in a situation they typically do not find themselves in. They’ve run into a team that has as good of a tip percentage of they do. In this case, both teams have identical 65.7% success rates and are tied for second in the NBA. There are two difference makers though. First, Jaren Jackson Jr. has a slightly higher tip rate than Jusuf Nurkic, who has missed games. Second, the Grizzlies are over 12% better at converting those tips into first buckets.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has gotten the lion’s share of the early buckets for the Grizzlies. However, not only is he not getting them as of late, but he also isn’t taking nearly as many early. As a result, I like one of the guys who are going to take the shot from the outside. That brings it down to Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane. Bane is shooting 6% better from the field, which will serve as the tiebreaker here.
First FG Bet for January 7: Desmond Bane (+800)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tipoff – 9:30 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Clippers have decended into auto-fade territory on the first bucket frontier. They are one of two teams that have a tipoff percentage and a first field goal success rate both below 40% – along with the Jazz. The Lakers are winning 54.1% of their tips and are even a touch better with Anthony Davis at the helm (although he is questionable for the game). They should be getting the first score on Sunday.
There’s not a whole lot of places to go here if you’re siding with the Lakers. Anthony Davis has been historically good on the first buckets over the past couple years, but he’s also banged up – as is Rui Hachimura and D’Angelo Russell. Their last seven first field goal wins have gone to one of those three guys who are hurting or LeBron James. You might not love the number here, but you got to ride with the King.
First FG Bet for January 7: LeBron James (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 7, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
