Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend of football? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 18 trends to bet and stats to back!
Unfortunately, most of the sites we follow trends for still aren’t updated. Apparently, they took an extended holiday break. That’s okay. We have other avenues we can look down.
Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. We did the same last week and did pretty decent.
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! We didn’t need fancy sites to break down past trends.
We used our stats, intuition, and historical data last week. With that, we went 4-1, bringing our six-week record to 47-21, which is winning us cash! Let’s win some more cash this weekend!
Go here for more free NFL picks!
2023 NFL Week 18 Trends To Bet: Stats To Back In Week 18 (47-21 Record)
Houston Texans (-1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
When: Saturday, January 6 at 8:15 PM (ET)
Houston Texans Against The Spread (ATS): 8-8 (4-3 on the road)
Indianapolis Colts Against The Spread (ATS): 9-7 (4-4 at home)
It’s do-or-die for both of the teams. A loss means an elimination from the playoffs. A win, and they’re in either the sixth or seventh seed. Will the rookie quarterback or veteran backup advance? Let’s take a look at the 2023 NFL Week 18 trends to bet and stats to back.
Let’s start with the Houston offense. They’re tied for 14th in points per game. While they are seventh in passing yards per game, they’re 22nd in rushing yards. This is a team that succeeds on the arm of CJ Stroud.
The Colts’ defense has played really well. They are sixth-best in points per game allowed. However, they’re only 17th in passing yards per game and 27th in rushing yards per game. They’ll have to fight to stop the Stroud to Collins connection, especially running their Cover-3 defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts are tenth in points per game. They’re 15th in passing yards per game and 13th in rushing yards per game. A healthy Jonathan Taylor helps them, but they’ve run the ball well no matter who is back there.
The Texans’ defense is 20th in points allowed and 25th in passing yards per game allowed. However, the Colts’ strength is running, where the Texans are allowing the third least amount of yards per game.
These two are likely going to play their hearts out and leave it all out on the field. They have to be in this position. Everything is on the line. The last time they played, the Colts won 31-20.
However, that was before Stroud started putting together such amazing games. The Texans have covered three of the last five, while the Colts have covered only one of the last four.
The Pick: Texans (-1.5) make the playoffs in Stroud’s first season.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-1.5)
When: Sunday, January 7, at 1:00 PM (ET)
New York Jets ATS: 5-10-1 (1-5-1 on the road)
New England Patriots ATS: 5-10-1 (1-6-1 at home)
This game has no meaning in the playoff race. There aren’t many player incentive bonuses that can be handed out. However, it’s not free of drama. Bill Belichek has defeated the Jets 15 games in a row.
Will this be his last game against them as the Patriots coach? Can he extend the streak? Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 18 trends to bet and stats to back.
Nothing about the Patriots’ offense has been pretty. They’re dead last in points per game, 24th in passing yards, and 25th in rushing yards. However, they have looked better in the past few games. In fact, they’ve covered or pushed four times in a row now.
The Jets’ defense is really solid but has still been taken advantage of lately. They’re 15th in points allowed and fourth in passing yards per game. However, they’re 24th in rushing yards per game. The Jets have only covered once in the last eight games.
The Jets’ offense is about as bad as the Patriots. They’re 29th in points per game, 30th in passing yards per game, and 28th in rushing yards. Breece Hall has had some good games recently. However, he may struggle against the Patriots.
Speaking of the Patriots, their defense has been a solid unit. They’re 16th in points allowed per game. They’re 14th in passing yards allowed and second in rushing yards per game allowed.
The Jets will need to rely on the run. However, I don’t think they can against the Patriots. This is the lowest NFL total since 2005. Not a lot of points will be scored but don’t forget, Belichek has been a successful coach for decades.
The Pick: Patriots (-1.5) send Belichek out with one last win as their coach.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
When: Sunday, January 7 at 4:25 PM (ET)
Seattle Seahawks ATS: 8-6-2 (5-2-1 on the road)
Arizona Cardinals ATS: 8-8 (4-3 at home)
The Seahawks need to win, coupled with a Bears, and they’ll make the playoffs. It would be better for the Cardinals if they lost for draft purposes. Will it play out that way, especially after the Cardinals’ big win against the Eagles? Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 18 trends to bet on and stats to back.
The Cardinals’ offense has started to look a little better with Kyler Murray officially back. Still, they haven’t been great. They’re 24th in points per game, 24th in passing yards per game but sixth in rushing yards per game. James Conner could find some success.
The Seahawks’ defense is ninth in points allowed per game. However, they’ve allowed the 19th most passing yards per game and 30th most rushing yards per game. They’re main focus should be stopping James Conner.
Geno has been decent again, leading the Seahawks’ offense. They’re 17th in points per game, 14th in passing yards per game, and 29th in rushing yards per game. Geno will have to be at the top of his game to limit mistakes and win the game.
The Cardinals’ defense is second in points allowed per game. They’re 13th in rushing yards per game but 32nd in passing yards per game. The Cardinals have covered two of the last five, while the Seahawks have covered four of the last five.
The Pick: Seahawks (-2.5) keep playoff hopes alive.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3)
When: Sunday, January 7 at 4:25 PM (ET)
Chicago Bears ATS: 8-7-1 (4-4 on the road)
Green Bay Packers ATS: 8-8 (4-3 at home)
Speaking of a game the Seahawks will keep their eyes on, the Packers could make the playoffs by winning. The Bears have been red-hot as of late. However, their playoff hopes are gone.
What better way to close the season than to end their rivals’ playoff hopes? A win could also solidify a return of Eberflus and Fields. Let’s take a look at 2023 NFL Week 18 Trends To Bet and stats to back.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Bears are 16th in points per game. While they’re towards the bottom in passing yards per game at 27th, they’re second in rushing yards per game.
This could cause some issues for the Packers’ defense. They’re 19th in points per game and 11th in passing yards per game. However, they struggle to stop the run, where they are 28th in rushing yards per game allowed. Bears should control the game on the ground.
The Bears defense is 13th in points allowed per game. They’re 21st in passing yards allowed per game and first in rush yards allowed per game. They’ll force Jordan Love to beat them with his arm.
On offense, the Packers are 11th in points scored per game. They’re 13th in passing yards per game and 15th in rushing yards per game.
Will their offense be enough to stop a Bears’ unit that has been top-five since Week 10? A unit that has averaged two turnovers a game?
The Bears have covered seven of the last eight. The Packers have only covered one of the last four.
The Pick: Bears (+3) get revenge from Week 1.
Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Miami Dolphins
When: Sunday, January 7th at 8:20 PM (ET)
Buffalo Bills ATS: 6-10 (2-5 on the road)
Miami Dolphins ATS: 10-6 (6-2 at home)
The Bills have one of the most interesting playoff scenarios. If they win, they’re the second seed. If they lose and the Steelers win, they don’t even make the playoffs. There is also a scenario that puts them in the seventh seed. The Dolphins are playing for the second or sixth seed. Let’s see what 2023 NFL Week 18 Trends To Bet and stats to back say.
The Dolphins’ offense has been phenomenal. They’re first in points per game, first in passing yards per game, and fifth in rushing yards per game. Tua to Tyreek has been a great connection, and Raheem Mostert has run the ball well.
The Bills are allowing the third least points per game, though. They are seventh in passing yards per game and 15th in rushing yards allowed per game. Can they slow the Dolphins like they did in October?
The Dolphins are 11th in points per game allowed, 12th in passing yards allowed per gam,e and seventh in rushing yards allowed. Can they slow the Bills down?
The Bills’ offense has been rolling. They’re sixth in points per game, tenth in passing yards per game, and seven in rushing yards per game. Can the Bills secure the number two seed?
The Bills have won four straight, while the Dolphins just got thumped by the Ravens. When these two played in October, the Bills won 48-20. The Dolphins have been good against bad teams but struggled against good.
The Pick: Bills (-3) secure the second seed.