Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for January 1. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 1.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 1
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New York Knicks
Tipoff – 3:00 pm EST
Madison Square Garden – New York, New York
Broadcast – NBA TV
Isaiah Hartenstein has taken over the tip duties for the Knicks with the injury to Mitchell Robinson. While he may not have the numbers that Robinson had, he has won two straight tips. He’ll also be up against Rudy Gobert who has won just 43.3% of all tips. In addition to Gobert not being great on the tip, the Timberwolves are also scoring the first bucket at a lower rate than their tip average. All of those things point towards a Knicks first field goal on New Year’s Day.
While the Knicks have a bunch of players with early action and a brand new member of their team about to debut, there is a clear pattern to their opponent as of late. The timberwolves have given up their last three first buckets to guys 6’6″ or below, with two of them being guards. Jalen Brunson has been a staple to the early scoring for the Knicks, and he fits all of those bills.
First FG Bet for January 1: Jalen Brunson (+450)
Detroit Pistons vs. Houston Rockets
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Toyota Center – Houston, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Pistons are not only a top ten team in terms of tip average, but they also are must trustworthy than their numbers suggest. They’re winning 59.4% on the season, but Jalen Duren is now healthy and his percentage is 68.8%. The Rockets are only winning 46.7% of the tips and are even worse on the early buckets. This one should lean to the Pistons without issue.
It may be a bit of a chalk play, but Cade Cunningham is the Pistons right now. He took one of their first three shots last game and took all three of their first three shots the game before. Riding the high of their first win in a month, I expect him to start strong again on Monday.
First FG Bet for January 1: Cade Cunningham (+600)
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tipoff – 10:30 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
This matchup sports two of the teams with the biggest difference in terms of both tipoff numbers and first field goals. In both of the categories, the Heat hold a 20% point advantage or better. When you add in the Kawhi Leonard is banged up and could possibly miss the game – there is no reason to like the Clippers here.
While Bam Adebayo has been the hot ticket for the Heat as of late, that’s not the trend for what the Clippers are giving up. Ivica Zubac has been playing some solid defense as of late and the first buckets are just not coming on the inside. In fact, the last three first scores they’ve allowed have come from guards and the one before that was an outside shot from Chet Holmgren. With Tyler Herro getting some solid looks, I think this could be a spot for him to get on the board.
First FG Bet for January 1: Tyler Herro (+800)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 1, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.