Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 31.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – December 31
Brooklyn Nets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Thunder are the best team in the league when it comes to the tip. Chet Holmgren isn’t just the frontrunner for the rookie of the year, but he also has the Thunder number one in the league on the jump. He’s grabbing 73.3% of the tipoffs. Considering the team who wins the tip is good for the first bucket two-thirds of the time, you’d already lean to Thunder players. Add in that they have a 19% advantage on the Nets in terms of first field goals and it’s a lock.
The Thunder have spread the love on the early scores. As a result, it’s easier to look to the Nets’ flaws to find the play here. They’ve lost four of the last five first buckets and all of them have been to players who are 6’8″ or above. The Thunder only have two guys in the starting lineup at that height. One is Chet Homgren, who scored first on Friday. The other is Josh Giddey, who has been getting plenty of early looks.
First FG Bet for December 31: Josh Giddey (+650)
Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
FedExForum – Memphis, Tennessee
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Kings are the worst team in the league when it comes to the tip. They’ve barely won over a quarter of the tips, which is nearly 38% lower than the Grizzlies’ average. While the Kings have good defense and are getting the first bucket way above their tipoff numbers, they are still substantially behind the Grizzlies on those numbers. The result is that we’ll use the Grizzlies here for a play.
It’s a bit on the chalky side, but Jaren Jackson Jr. gets a ton of early looks. He already has nine first buckets on the year and could have more if his shots had all fallen. While I do worry abouy Sabonis’ defense on the inside, I like his chances here for the first score.
First FG Bet for December 31: Jaren Jackson Jr. (+350)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 31, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
