Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend of football? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 17 trends to bet and stats to back!
Unfortunately, most of the sites we follow trends for still aren’t updated. Apparently, they took a holiday break. That’s okay. We have other avenues we can look down.
Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. We did the same last week and did pretty decent.
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! We didn’t need fancy sites to break down past trends.
We used our stats, intuition, and historical data last week. With that, we went 4-1, bringing our six-week record to 43-20, which is winning us cash! Let’s win some more cash this weekend!
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2023 NFL Week 17 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears (-3)
When: Sunday, December 31st at 1:00 PM (ET)
Atlanta Falcons Against The Spread (ATS): 5-10 (2-5 on the road)
Chicago Bears Against The Spread (ATS): 7-7-1 (3-3-1 at home)
The Falcons hit the road to take on the surging Chicago Bears with Taylor Heinicke as their starting quarterback. Both of these teams technically still have a chance to make the playoffs, albeit a small chance. Which team will help their case? Are the Bears too focused on a matchup with the Packers next week?
These two met just last year, and the Falcons won by three points. However, that was in Atlanta, not on the road in the cold. The Bears have won or pushed the last five games against the spread. The Falcons are 3-2 ATS in the last five games. Let’s take a look at the stats to back in Week 17.
The Falcons are 24th in points scored per game, while the Bears’ defense is allowing the 11th least amount of points. The Falcons are 22nd in the league in passing yards per game.
The Bears’ defense isn’t great at stopping the pass. They are 25th in the league against the pass. However, the Falcons are eighth in the league in rushing yards per game, while the Bears’ defense is number one in stopping the run.
The Bears’ offense is 21st in points scored per game, and the Falcons are 27th in points allowed. Like the Falcons, the Bears don’t do much of their damage in the air, where they are 28th in the league in yards per game, which is good since the Falcons are eighth against the pass.
The Bears do run the ball well. They are second in rush yards per game, while the Falcons are 15th in rushing yards allowed.
This is a nasty game, but the stats are pointing towards one team having a slight advantage, and they’re at home.
The Pick: Bears (-3) keep their ATS streak going.
LA Rams (-5.5) @ New York Giants
When: Sunday, December 31st @ 1:00 PM (ET)
LA Rams ATS: 9-5-1 (4-2-1 on the road)
New York Giants ATS: 6-8-1 (3-6 at home)
The Rams are also one of the hottest teams in football. They’ve covered five straight and won five of the last six. The Giants have been feisty as well, covering four of the last five.
The Rams have to keep winning to stay in the playoff race. They need to win either against the Giants this week or the 49ers next week. One of those should be easier than the other, but what do the stats to back in Week 17 say?
The Giants are 31st in points per game, while the Rams are 14th in points allowed per game. The Giants are dead last in the league in passing yards per game and 15th in rush yards per game. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense is 22nd against the pass and 13th against the run. Essentially, this Rams’ defense should match up well against the Giants.
The Giants’ defense matches up decent as well as far as points allowed. They’re 6th in points allowed per game, while the Rams are ninth in points scored. However, the Rams are 10th in both pass and rush yards per game. Meanwhile, the Giants are 20th against the pass and 29th against the run.
The Rams need this game more and have the better team on both sides of the ball. The Giants are feisty, but I think the Rams need to make this a statement game.
The Pick: Rams (-5.5) cruise to a win.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-2.5)
When: Sunday, December 31st @ 1:00 PM (ET)
New Orleans Saints ATS: 4-10-1 (2-5-1 on the road)
Tampa Bay Bucs ATS: 10-5 (3-4 at home)
Winners of four straight, the Bucs control their destiny and can take this division. The Saints should have been in the position with their strength of schedule, but they’ve fallen flat multiple times this year.
That includes when these two met in New Orleans, and the Bucs won 26-9. Should we expect a different result this time in Tampa? Let’s look at the stats to back in Week 17.
The Bucs are 17th in points scored per game, while the Saints are 24th in points allowed. Tampa is 17th in passing yards per game, while the Saints are 7th in yards allowed. The Bucs are 30th in rush yards per game, and the Saints defense is 25th. It didn’t show the first game, but the Saints’ defense matches up well against the Bucs.
The Saints are 13th in points per game, while Bucs are 22nd in points allowed. New Orleans is 12th in passing yards per game, especially when Chris Olave is on the field.
The Bucs are 32nd in pass yards allowed per game. The Saints don’t do as well running the ball, where they are 21st in yards per game. This is a good thing because the Bucs are good against the run. They are seventh in rush yards allowed.
Every game in this division has resulted in the road team winning. Let’s follow that trend.
The Pick: Saints (+2.5) surprise the Bucs and get revenge for the last game.
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
When: Sunday, December 31st at 1:00 PM (ET)
Miami Dolphins ATS: 10-5 (4-3 on the road)
Baltimore Ravens ATS: 10-5 (4-3 at home)
This could be the game of the week as the one-seeded Ravens and two-seeded Dolphins face off. A Ravens win almost solidifies them as the one-seed, and a Dolphins loss puts it out of reach.
Which of these powerhouse AFC teams will win? Last year Miami won the matchup, but this is an improved Ravens team. Let’s see what the stats to back in Week 17 say.
The Ravens’ offense has been very good this year, scoring the fourth most points in the league. The Dolphins’ defense has allowed the 20th most points.
The Ravens are first in rushing yards per game and 21st in passing yards. They could have a tough day against the fifth-ranked rush defense and tenth-ranked pass defense. However, the Ravens did just face a very good 49ers defense and couldn’t be stopped.
The Dolphins are first in points scored, while the Ravens are first in points allowed. The Dolphins’ offense is first in passing yards and fifth in rushing yards.
The Ravens’ defense is sixth against the pass and twelfth against the pass. The Ravens showed last week that they were one of the best teams in the league. I don’t think that changes here.
The Pick: Ravens (-3) will have the number one seed in the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
When: Sunday, December 31st @ 8:20 PM ET
Green Bay Packers ATS: 7-8 (3-5 on the road)
Minnesota Vikings ATS: 7-5-3 (2-5 at home)
The last game on the slate is an NFC North matchup with two teams playing for one of the last playoff seeds. They both need some help, but a win this week would be crucial.
The Packers suspended their top cornerback, and the Vikings will start their fourth quarterback of the year. What do the stats to back in Week 17 say we should do?
Both of these teams have shown promise as well as struggled this year. The Vikings’ offense scores the 21st most points, while the Packer’s defense allows the 15th most.
Despite all the quarterback changes, the Vikings are third in passing yards per game. The Packers defense is 13th in passing yards allowed. They match up well in the run game, where the Vikings are the 27th-worst team and the Packers are the 30th-worst team.
The Pack are tied for 11th in points scored per game while the Vikings are 23rd in points allowed. The Packers are 18th in both passing yards per game and rushing yards per game.
The Vikings, on the other hand, are 17th against the pass and ninth against the run. This means the Packers will have to rely on Jordan Love while the Vikings rely on Jaren Hall. I don’t think either of them is a franchise quarterback, but I trust Love more.
The Pick: Sans Aaron Rodgers, the Packers (+1.5) make the playoffs.
