Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 25.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – December 25
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks
Tipoff – 12:00 pm EST
Madison Square Garden – New York, New York
Broadcast – ESPN
The Knicks currently rank third in the league when it comes to first buckets and opening tips. Even though their usual tip guy Mitchell Robinson is now out for the season, that doesn’t mean we need to fade them here. While Isaiah Hartenstein is 0-2 on tips, the solid defense of the Knicks has led to them going 2-0 on the first buckets in that span. They also are 2-0 against the Bucks on the season thanks to the low percentage shots the Bucks take.
As mentioned prior, the Knicks are 2-0 against the Bucks on the first score. In both of those efforts, Jalen Brunson scored the first field goal of the game. With all the action he’s gotten so far, is there any reason to thing he can’t keep it going?
First FG Bet for December 25: Jalen Brunson (+650)
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
Tipoff – 2:30 pm EST
Ball Arena – Denver, Colorado
Broadcast – ESPN and ABC
There’s not a huge difference on the board when it comes to tips or first buckets on these two teams. The Nuggets hold a 6.5% advantage on the opening tip and a 6.3% advantage on the firdt field goals. They also come out with a better percentage than their tip, which gives them a sizeable lead over the Warrirors here.
The last five first buckets that the Warriors have given up have been to guards. So while Nikola Jokic seems like an easy chalk play here, Jamal Murray makes way more sense. He’s got some early shots as of late and I think he converts here.
First FG Bet for December 25: Jamal Murray (+650)
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tipoff – 5:00 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – ESPN and ABC
This play varies wildly based on whether Kristaps Porzingis is on the court or not. He’s grabbing the tip at a 75% clip, which is enough to lean to the Celtics in almost any case. When he’s not on the court, Al Horford is a below average tip guy. If we’re hanging our decision on this alone, based on the fact that Pronzingis took Saturday off – I believe he’ll play on Christmas. As a result, that means we like a Celtics player here.
In the last two games that Porzingis played, he took the first shot for the Celtics. That alone should be enough to play him here. However, when you add in that his absence from the game would mean a push on the bet, it’s even more enticing to use him here.
First FG Bet for December 25: Kristaps Porzingis (+550)
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Kaseya Center – Miami, Florida
Broadcast – ESPN
The story of this game, particularly when it comes to the first bucket is all about Joel Embiid. He is listed as out for Christmas Day and that leaves the 76ers with a sub-par tip guy. Whoever it is will be up against Bam Adebayo, who is grabbing the tip at a rate of 75.0% on the year. Grab a member of the Heat here as a result.
Tyler Herro is all up in the early game action for the Heat. He’s taken the first shot in back to back games and has one of the first three shots in four straight games. While some of those aren’t falling, I like the odds that he gets one down here.
First FG Bet for December 25: Tyler Herro (+750)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Tipoff – 10:30 pm EST
Footprint Center – Phoenix, Arizona
Broadcast – ESPN
This one is a hard one to call when it comes to the early game statistics. The big number out of the gate is the 26% lead that the Suns have when it comes to the tip off. With 66.4% of the tip winners getting the first bucket, you might already be leaning to the Suns. However, the Mavericks hold an 8.6% lead in the first field goal despite the deficit in tip. Add in that Derrick Jones has won back to back tips and there’s plenty of reason to like the Mavericks here.
On Christmas Day the stars tend to show up. Luka Doncic has the prime time spot, but he also has a ton of early shots for the Mavericks. If you are leaning to this squad, there is really no reason not to trust Luka here.
First FG Bet for December 25: Luka Doncic (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 23, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
