Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 22.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – December 22
Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Wells Fargo Center – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
There’s not a huge difference between these two teams on the tip. The Raptors are grabbing 55.6% of the tips on the year, whereas the 76ers are getting 51.9%. That alone isn’t enough to sway the pick. However, when you look to the first bcuket data, that is enough. The 76ers have a respectable 51.9% – the same as their tipoff data. The Raptors on the other hand have got the first field goal 77.8% of the time. That’s good for first in the league and is a testiment to their shot selection and defense.
I wish there was a contrarian play to make here, but the Raptors love going to Scottie Barnes early. He has five of their last six first buckets. He also has six of their last eight. Overall, he has 42.9% of their first buckets, which should be good enough to let it ride here.
First FG Bet for December 22: Scottie Barnes (+500)
Denver Nuggets vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Barclays Center – Brooklyn, New York
Broadcast – NBA TV
While the Nuggets have a lead when it comes to the year-long stats, when you look at the two jump guys for Friday night, they have roughly the same numbers. Nikola Jokic has a 55.2% success rate compared to 55.7% for Nic Claxton. The big difference comes in the ability to convert off of the jump. The Nets are a touch under their tip rate on the year (3.7% lower). On the contrary, the Nuggets are a touch over their tip numbers (3.4% higher). The ability to convert when it’s this close is everything, so give me the Nuggets.
He may not have very many first buckets on the year, but Jamal Murray has been getting a lot of early looks in the last few games. He took two of the first three Nuggets shots last game. Let’s see if he can’t add to it here.
First FG Bet for December 22: Jamal Murray (+550)
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Chase Center – San Francisco, California
Broadcast – ESPN
You have to fade the Wizards at this point. No team in the league is as bad as they are on the jump at 29.6%. They are also in the bottom five in the league when it comes to first field goals – 37.0%. The Warriors might just be league average, or a touch over, on the year, but that should be enough to lean to them on the plays here.
Nobody is getting after it early as much as Klay Thompson is for the Warriors. He had two of the first three shots in their last game and got one of the first three in the game prior. In addition, three of the last five early buckets against the Wizards have come from guards shooting from the outside.
First FG Bet for December 22: Klay Thompson (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 22, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
