Only a few more sleeps until the premier day on the NBA calendar – Christmas Day. This means we’re over a quarter of the way through the season already. Let’s look into the current odds for the regular season awards and see if we can find some value. Here is a 2023/24 NBA awards market update.
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2023/24 NBA Awards Market Update
NBA Regular Season MVP
Nikola Jokic +250
Joel Embiid + 425
Luka Doncic +450
There are no surprise names on the top of the NBA MVP odds board currently, as Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid have won the last three MVP awards. Jokic is having a typical superb season, but he’ll probably have to do more to enter the three-timers club. Voters are weird about these things. Denver is currently only third in the Western Conference.
I’d much rather lay some money down on Joel Embiid to repeat as MVP. He’s leading the league with 34.4 points per game, is fifth in the league in rebounding, and is averaging a career-high in assists. Plus, probably more importantly, Philly is turning heads with their play this season after jettisoning James Harden. The narrative might be in Embiid’s favor.
As for longshots, there’s plenty of value on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +1000 as long as the Oklahoma City Thunder continue to remain near the top of the Western Conference. And getting the best player, Jayson Tatum, on the league’s best team, the Boston Celtics, for +2000 could be a steal.
NBA Rookie of the Year
Victor Wembanyama +100
Chet Holmgren +300
Jaime Jacquez Jr +6000
The NBA Rookie of the Year race is far more intriguing than most would have thought heading into the season. San Antonio Spur Victor Wembanyama was pegged as a once-in-a-generation talent, and you can’t really argue that he’s disproved this during his first 24 NBA games.
The French teenager is averaging 19.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.3 spg, and a league-leading 3.0 bpg. However, OKC’s Chet Holmgren is right there, neck and neck with him.
While the raw counting stats are in Wembanyama’s favor, Holmgren’s are close, and he sweeps the board in shooting efficiency and advanced stats. And he’s helped his team to a 17-8 record while the Spurs are spiraling down the drain at 4-21. Getting Holmgren at 3:1 odds is worth a sprinkle. This is a two-horse race – don’t waste your money on anyone else.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year
Rudy Gobert -110
Anthony Davis +430
Chet Holmgren +1700
The Rudy Gobert redemption tour is in full swing. He’s made it his mission to come out strong this season and prove that he is still the league’s top defender, and the odds show that so far, it’s been mission accomplished for him.
The defensive metrics all have Gobert at the top of the pile, and his Minnesota Timberwolves are the top-rated defense unit in the league and are tied with the Boston Celtics with the best record in the NBA at 20-5.
With NBA defensive statistics still not widely accepted and used, this is an award where perception and narrative are important, and as long as the Wolves remain a top team, this is Gobert’s award to lose. Getting him at -110 is good value, but not as good as if you invested in Gobert before the season tipped off when you could have gotten him at +1100.
NBA Most Improved Player
Tyrese Maxey -105
Scottie Barnes +800
Alperen Sengun +900
Embiid’s Philadelphia teammate, Tyrese Maxey, leads the race for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. Maxey took the leap from a very good player last season to an all-star-level player this one, so he’s a worthy choice. Assuming he stays healthy and Philly continues to play at their current level, he should win the MIP.
If you’re looking for a longshot, Brooklyn’s Cam Thomas has and probably will continue to, put up some huge scoring numbers, and he’s at +4000. Scoring points will get your attention and award votes.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year
Austin Reaves +250
Tim Hardaway +300
Cole Anthony +750
Austin Reaves continues his steady progress in his third NBA season, averaging 15.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 5.0 apg in a bench role for the Los Angeles Lakers. A very solid stat line, plus the fact he plays for the Lakers, makes him a very solid bet at +250 for the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award.
With the winner of this award often simply being the player who scores the most points off the bench, splashing some money on Tim Hardaway Jr and Bogdan Bogdanovic (+1000), who are both averaging around 17.5 ppg, is worth the investment.
NBA Coach of the Year
Mark Daigneault +275
Chris Finch +300
Jamahl Mosley +360
The NBA’s Coach of the Year tends to go to the coach of the team that surprised and/or overachieved the most. So you need to decide if you like Minnesota’s or Oklahoma City’s chances of staying at the top of the Western Conference standings the best, then bet on the respective coach. I think Minnesota is the best bet, so Chris Finch at +300 is the play.
