Did you know that Underdog Fantasy has player props for all the bowl games this season? They do, and we just have to offer our best plays for each group of games. We may have to double-check on opt-outs, transfers, and injuries ahead of each game, but picks still need to be made. In fact, let’s triple-check opt-outs and then build an Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Underdog Fantasy College Football Bowl Season Week 1 Higher/Lower Plays
This week’s plays are a bit quarterback-heavy, but we’ve got a nice mix of higher plays, lower plays, passing plays, and rushing plays. Let’s take a look at the top picks for the first slate of bowl games over the weekend of December 16th.
Ohio vs. Georgia Southern
Parker Navarro Lower 166.5 passing yards
The Ohio Bobcats’ offense has been absolutely wrecked by opt-outs and injuries and is prime for a fade.
This is normally the section where we review stats and usage rates. The only stats that matter are that Parker Navarro is the Bobcat’s active leader in passing yards and rushing yards. Bobcats starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke and their top three rushers have opted out of the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
Navarro threw only 10 times in 2023 and managed seven completions to go along with two touchdowns and one interception. He also managed to carry the rock 10 times for 107 yards this year.
Navarro will get asked to lead a Bobcats offense that lacks a running game, key blockers, and a few targets.
Georgia Southern has a majority of its defense available for this game. The Eagles aren’t great on defense, but they should manage to contain a senior quarterback making his first career start with a diminished lineup.
Look to go lower on Parker Navarro’s passing yards in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry this weekend.
New Mexico St. vs. Fresno St.
Diego Pavia Higher 47.5 rushing yards
New Mexico St. Aggies quarterback Diego “Pissin'” Pavia exited early in the conference championship game against Liberty two weeks ago. Pavia was reported to have suffered a shoulder injury.
However, he’s had two weeks to recover and is expected to play against Fresno St. this weekend. Assuming Pavia is good to go, he should find plenty of room to run against a porous Fresno St. defense.
The Fresno St. Bulldogs had the 98th-ranked rush defense in the country this year. They allowed 171.4 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.
The New Mexico St. Aggies averaged 154.4 yards per game on the ground this year. Pavia cleared 47 rush yards in eight out of 14 starts this year. He should show up to this one rested and be able to get loose against Fresno St.
The Bulldogs will also play this game without head coach Jeff Tedford. Assistant head coach Tom Skipper will handle the sidelines for the Bulldogs with Tedford on medical leave.
Have Pissin’ Pavia higher on rushing yards in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Texas Tech vs. California
Behren Morton Lower 21.5 completions
The Texas Tech Red Raiders enter the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl without their top two pass catchers. Jerand Bradley and Myles Price will both take their talents into the transfer portal and have opted out of the game.
Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton is only a sophomore and will start in this weekend’s game. Morton has only gone over 21 completions once this year. It was in a shootout against TCU in November. He’s also going to be without two of his top targets. Red Raiders star running back Tahj Brooks will return to school next year, and will play in the game.
The California Golden Bears will likely see a heavy dose of the Red Raiders’ ground attack, and Morton will spend more time handing off to Brooks than slinging it. Morton isn’t known for tossing it around, and there’s no reason to think he’ll start without two of his top targets.
Fade Morton by going lower in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Jacksonville St. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Zion Webb Higher 74.5 rushing yards
This is one of the simplest handicaps on the slate this weekend. The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns had the 89th-ranked rush defense in the country this year.
Zion Webb 42 yard run! #JSU pic.twitter.com/TKWJWd5ssK
— Video from: @TSV__1 (@TSV__1) October 18, 2023
The Ragin’ CajunUCLs allowed 167.5 rushing yards per game, and teams ran the ball against them all the time. Their defense saw an average of 42.0 rush attempts per game and allowed 4.0 yards per attempt.
The Jacksonville St. Gamecocks have one of the best running games in the country, and they should ground ‘n’ pound Louisiana on their way to a first FBS bowl win.
Quarterback Zion Webb leads the Gamecocks ground attack. Webb has gone over 75 rushing yards in three of his last five games. He did struggle on the ground in his last game against New Mexico St., but he’s had three weeks to rest, and the Gamecocks should be fired up for their FBS bowl game in program history.
The Gamecocks should run all over the Ragin’ Cajuns, and Webb should be a key component in their attack. Look for Webb to go higher on his rushing yards total in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
UCLA vs. Boise St.
Ethan Garbers Lower 31.5 passing attempts
This is an odd line, but it appears to make sense to fade. Boise St. will start a true Freshman at quarterback in Saturday’s LA Bowl but should have their full complement of running backs. Boise St. will likely have to run the ball more often than not against a stout UCLA defense. This could result in a faster-paced game with limited offensive possessions.
Even if this game doesn’t follow a game script with a few possessions, going lower on Garbers completions is still the play. Garbers never had over 31 passing attempts this year. He did throw 31 times against USC, but that was the only start he made that saw him go over 30.
UCLA still has running back Carson Steele active on the depth chart. If he opts out, backup TJ Harden is more than capable of taking on a bigger share of the carries.
UCLA will spend more time handing it off than tossing it around, and Garbers should end the day lower than 31.5 passing attempts. Make sure you’re also lower on Garbers passing attempts on Saturday in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Do you want picks for all the bowl games? Check out The College Football Experience podcast and listen to Colby, NC Nick, and Patty C offer their advice against the spread of every bowl game. Listen to our shows, take our expert advice, and let it ride!
