UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington comes to Vegas for the last event of the year. The UFC has loaded it up with high-level fights, including a pair of title fights. Whether you’re team #andstill or team #andnew, we’re giving you the picks all the way up and down the card to help you come out on top come Saturday. Come check out our favorite UFC 296 picks.
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UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington – Predictions & Best Bets
Cody Durden ML (+145) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov
One of my favorite UFC 296 picks is the straight-up money line on Cody Durden. The fighter out of Georgia has proven to be a formidable wrestler who sets a great pace – getting in your face for 15 minutes if he needs to.
We saw Ulanbekov struggle with that game plan against Tim Elliott. I don’t think Durden has quite the jiu-jitsu that Elliott has, but he has enough of the pressure and wrestling to mimic that plan and cash plus money.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval – Under 3.5 Rounds (-250)
It may seem like a chalky play, but I think it’s safe to say this one doesn’t make it deep into the championship rounds. Brandon Royval fights like he’s double-parked, and nothing seems to change that. Whether that ends for the better or the worse, it should be a quick night.
Ariane Lipski ML (+160) vs Casey O’Neill
Casey O’Neill may be the prospect that a lot of people are talking about at 125 lbs, but there are some issues with her wrestling that give me pause here. She had a lot of trouble getting the fight to the mat against both Jennifer Maia and Roxanne Modafferi.
Lipski isn’t a world-beater on the mats but has shown real improvement in stuffing opponents. If she’s able to do it a bit to O’Neill, her high-level striking should play up in this one.
Shamil Gaziev – Wins via KO (+280)
The 11-0 fighter out of Bahrain has 10 of his wins via finish, and 70% of those are by KO. This is because Gaziev has a mean straight punch that put his last opponent down right away. If you look at the list of guys Buday has fought, there haven’t been many power punchers. I think we’ll see his chin tested early in this one.
Paddy Pimblett – Wins Inside the Distance (+115)
I don’t like piling on Tony Ferguson – I’ve always been a fan of the guy. However, he just takes too many shots to expect a long fight out of him at UFC 296. If there’s one knock on Pimblett, it is that he himself is quite hittable. His ability to get a stoppage isn’t really in question. So against an aging fighter with a questionable chin? Yeah, take the inside-the-distance play.
Irene Aldana ML (-180) vs. Karol Rosa
Rounding out my UFC 296 bets is a straight play on Irene Aldana. She’s really only lost to the top of the division and against fighters who could make her grapple.
While her jiu-jitsu is quite good, she’s had issues with scoring significant takedowns and control time in her last few fights. I don’t think she has the reach, speed, or technique to hang with Aldana on the feet – so grab Aldana at this price.
If you’d like even more UFC 296 Picks, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
