Conference Championship weekend is here. This is our lightest slate since Week Zero back in August, but it has a couple of tasty plays for an Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry. Let’s dig into the plays in this weekend’s games. Keep in mind that 10 teams will raise a trophy, and 10 teams will leave disappointed. However, you can come out ahead with Underdog Fantasy.
Underdog Fantasy College Conference Championship Week Higher/Lower Plays
We’re going to lean into rushing yards, usage rates, and one passing yards total in the conference championship week picks for Underdog Fantasy College Football.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State
C.J. Baxter Higher 19.5 rushing attempts
C.J. Baxter has been RB1 for the Texas Longhorns since Jonathon Brooks tore his ACL a few weeks ago. Baxter racked up 18 carries in the game that Brooks exited early. He cleared 19.5 rushing attempts in his first week as the starter against Iowa State, and then he spent most of the second half watching the backups roll Texas Tech last week.
This week, Texas gets Oklahoma State in the Longhorns’ last Big 12 championship game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 rushing attempts against the Cowboys. Okie State has the 104th-ranked rush defense in the country and allows 176.5 rushing yards per game.
The Longhorns average 38.3 rushing attempts per game and have the 23rd-ranked rush offense in the country. Texas averages 188.3 yards per game on the ground. Look for the Longhorns to go over their season average, and Baxter will get fed at least 20 carries this weekend. Have Baxter higher on rushing attempts in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
UNLV vs. Boise State
Jayden Maiava Lower 28.5 passing attempts
The UNLV Rebels offense has only averaged 29.5 passing attempts per game this year with Jayden Maiava at the helm. Maiava has only thrown 29 times or more in five out of 10 starts this year. This includes each of his last two starts.
However, both of those games were tight games that saw UNLV need to throw in the second half. There’s a good chance that the Rebels jump out to an early lead, and Maiava spends most of the second half handing the ball off. Maiava has never thrown more than 29 times in a game that UNLV has won by double digits.
Maiava is also a true freshman starting in the biggest game of his career. The Rebels have limited what they’ve asked him to do. They could choose to lean on their ground game in an effort to keep him from making mistakes and protect the ball.
UNLV has gotten this far with their defense and ground attack. They should ride both of those in their conference championship, and that’s why you want to go lower on Maiava passing attempts in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Georgia vs. Alabama
Carson Beck Higher 31.5 passing attempts
Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck has thrown the ball 370 times in his 12 starts this year. That means he’s averaging just under 31 passing attempts per game. The last time he went over 31.5 passing attempts was in Week 10 against the Missouri Tigers. He’s failed to throw the ball 32 or more times in each of his last three. Two of the games were blowouts against Tennessee and Ole Miss, and the third was a weird rivalry game on the road against Georgia Tech.
Beck gets the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Bulldogs’ toughest game to date. There’s a non-zero chance that the Bulldogs might trail late and need to sling it in this game. They could also look to put it on Alabama early, racking up a ton of points early, and cruise to a win. Either way, Beck should attempt more than 31 passes on Saturday.
The Crimson Tide averages 30.5 passing attempts against per game. Alabama allows a 58.6% completion rate and allows 191.3 yards per game through the air on average. However, Texas through the ball 38 times in Alabama’s only loss of the season and racked up 349 yards through the air. Look for Georgia to follow a similar game script, and have Beck higher in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Tulane vs. SMU
Michael Pratt Higher 27.5 rushing yards
Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt only racked up 321 yards on the ground this year. He was slowed early in the year with a knee injury suffered against South Alabama in September. Pratt ran 10 times for 50 yards in his most recent game against UTSA. He looked healthy and capable of taking off, and this total looks a bit low for a quarterback known as a dual-threat.
Pratt has gone over 27.5 rushing yards in seven out of 10 starts this year, and he should rack up enough attempts to clear the total set for the AAC championship game.
The SMU Mustangs are capable against the run. SMU has the 27th-ranked rush defense in the nation. They only allow 120.0 rushing yards per game on average. However, they’ve been known to get into shootouts, and the rushing yards totals are lower than they should be. A lot of teams have spent most of the second half slinging it in an effort to catch up.
TCU’s Chandler Morris and Navy’s Braxton Woodson were both able to run the ball against SMU, and Pratt should also find room to maneuver.
Have Pratt to go higher on his rushing yards total this weekend in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Miami (OH) vs. Toledo
Aveon Smith Lower 155.5 passing yards
Aveon Smith took over the starting quarterback role after Brett Gabbert suffered a season-ending leg injury against the same Toledo Rockets.
Smith is a run-first quarterback with four starts under his belt. He’s topped 155.5 passing yards exactly once. Smith completes only 52.5% of his passes, and he’s only thrown more than 20 times once in his four outings. He simply doesn’t put up the volume to go over his passing yards total.
Also, the Toledo Rockets defense is pretty good at defending the pass. The Rockets have the 28th-best pass defense in the nation and only allow 197.9 passing yards on average. Toledo’s 52.9% completion percentage against is the fourth lowest in the country.
This is Miami’s biggest game of the season, and they have to start a sophomore quarterback with only four career starts. He also has to face one of the stingiest pass defenses in the country. Smith should make sure he practices handing the ball off because he’s going to do a lot of it this weekend.
Look to go lower on Smith’s passing yard total in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Do you need picks against the spread for every conference championship game this weekend? Check out The College Football Experience to get all the picks from Colby Dant, Patty C, and NC Nick. We also have the FCS edition to break down every playoff game this weekend. Listen to our shows, take our expert advice, and let it ride!
