Torn on which way to lean on the games this special Thanksgiving week of football? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 13 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week.
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! Last week’s article was missed, partially due to some fluky games. On Thanksgiving, I gave out seven games. We finished 6-1, bringing our six-week record to 29-13, which is winning us cash! Let’s get back on the right side of the trends and keep winning money.
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2023 NFL Week 13 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back
Detroit Lions (-4) @ New Orleans Saints
The Lions got a little surprised by the Packers on Thanksgiving. However, they had played two close games against the Chargers and Bears prior to that. Can they bounce back after a longer rest? Especially with the Packers surging forward. The Saints also had a disappointing loss when they went on the road to face Atlanta. The Saints need to start piling together a few wins to win the division or make the playoffs. Which team do the NFL Week 13 trends to bet favor?
The first thing to look at is the fact that the Lions are on an extended rest after playing on Thanksgiving. That favors them as they’re 12-3 against the spread (ATS) when they have over a week’s rest. Not to mention, they have been very good on the road as head coach Dan Campbell and quarterback Jared Goff are 8-2 ATS on the road. They’re also 8-2 ATS in the last ten games when favorites of seven points or less.
The Saints came into the season with one of the easiest schedules. However, it hasn’t benefited them as much. They’re only 2-8-1 against the spread this year. They’re also 2-13 ATS at home against teams with winning records. They’re 2-8 ATS at home before playing Carolina as well. The division lookahead certainly affects them. Coming off a division game, they aren’t great either. In fact, they’re 4-13 ATS at home after playing Atlanta. This will be a tough game for them. The home field doesn’t mean much since they’re 2-8 ATS at Ceasars Superdome in the last 10 games.
The Pick: Lions (-4 on BetRivers) bounce back
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-5.5)
Carolina starts with the worst record in the NFL, and Frank Reich has been fired. The only concern I have picking this game is maybe they get that first game lift after firing their head coach. However, I’m not sure Carolina has the talent to bounce anywhere. The Bucs, on the other hand, have played well. However, they haven’t thrown enough wins together. They still have a shot at the division and at the playoffs. Can Baker help them get there? Let’s see what the NFL Week 13 trends to bet say.
Bryce Young hasn’t been the answer the Panthers had hoped. He’s been worse on the road, where he’s 1-4 ATS this season. The Panthers are also 1-8 ATS when playing on Sunday, including 0-5 on the road. That’s unfortunate, given that most of their games fall on Sunday. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS after a straight-up loss and 1-5-1 ATS against teams within the NFC. Amazingly, they’re also 14-34-1 against teams with a losing record.
The Bucs may be a little up and down, but they’ve been good against bad teams. They’re 8-1-1 ATS against teams that are in the bottom tier of the NFL. They’re also 7-0 against teams that aren’t passing the ball well. The Panthers could be looking ahead to another conference game against the Saints. That benefits the Bucs as they’re 7-1-2 ATS against opponents who are about to play New Orleans. They’re also 7-3 ATS against Carolina in the last ten games.
The Pick: Baker rolls. Bucs (-5.5 on BetRivers)
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) @ Washington Commanders
The Dolphins are about to steal their division. On top of that, the Ravens have a tough schedule, and the Chiefs haven’t looked great. Could the Dolphins continue winning games and get the number-one seed? The Commanders have not had a great season. They are currently 4-8 and at the bottom of their division. They fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, but it doesn’t feel like that is going to be enough to change the season around. Do the NFL Week 13 trends to bet favor another big Miami spread?
The Commanders haven’t been great this year. That isn’t good for them, especially given that they aren’t good against the AFC East either. They are currently 4-16-3 ATS against the AFC East. Howell also hasn’t been good at covering spreads at home, where they are 0-4-1 ATS. You’d think they’d be good on a long rest, but they’re 7-18 ATS at home when on a longer than seven-day rest. They’re also 3-11-1 after a straight-up conference loss.
Even though the Dolphins have struggled against teams with winning records, they’re 7-0 ATS against teams with a losing record. They’re also 6-1 ATS as a favorite. They’re 5-1-1 ATS against opponents that are about to play the Rams. They continue to beat up on bad teams that are on losing streaks. In fact, they’re 10-3-2 against opponents that are on a losing streak of three or more games. Finally, the Dolphins are 7-3 ATS after playing the Jets.
The Pick: Dolphins keep flying (-9.5 on BetRivers)
Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Tennessee Titans
It baffles me that the Colts are 6-5 and in the playoff race. When did that happen? They certainly haven’t been great. However, nobody is arguing that the Titans are great, either. They’ve done alright at home, like this game, but overall they’ve struggled. They’re 4-1 ATS at home, however the Colts have covered 4-1 ATS on the road. Do the NFL Week 13 trends to bet say we should take the favorites?
The Colts have quietly led themselves to a winning record with Gardner Minshew taking over for Anthony Richardson. They will look to keep their winning record when they face the Titans. The Titans have a decent rushing defense, which is good, given that the Colts are 6-1 ATS against good defenses. They’re also 17-7-1 on the road against low-scoring teams. This team believes, and Minshew is helping them do so. He’s currently 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
The Titans, on the other hand, are struggling. They’re 1-6 ATS in December and 1-5 against teams with a winning record. They’re also 2-5 against the AFC. The Colts have won three games in a row. That’s bad news for the Titans since they are 7-17-1 ATS against teams on a winning streak of three or more games. They’re also 2-5 ATS before playing Miami. Finally, the Titans are 4-10-1 in the last 15 games when avenging a loss against the Colts. These betting trends don’t look good for the Titans.
The Pick: Colts (-1 at BetRivers) Keep Winning
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ Green Bay Packers
How have the Packers gone from talks of Jordan Love being a bust to potentially being able to sneak into the playoffs? How has the most dominant team in the past couple of years, the Chiefs, looked so bad on offense at times? The Chiefs bounced back against the Raiders after a slow start, but they haven’t looked like the same Chiefs team. The Packers put together a perfect game plan to beat the Lions on Thanksgiving. Do the NFL Week 13 betting trends think LaFluer has another trick up his sleeve?
The Chiefs have been good, but they aren’t great on the road after a straight-up win. In fact, they’re 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games on the road after a win. This game will be on Sunday night football, where the Chiefs are surprisingly bad. They’re 4-11 ATS on Sunday Night Football and 2-5 on the road ATS. They’re also 3-7 ATS on the road after an AFC win.
The Packers are 7-0 ATS in the last seven when facing a top-15 defense like the Chiefs. They’re also 9-1 ATS against the AFC-West. Not only has their defense started playing better, but Jordan Love has played better as well. Let’s not forget the Packers are no strangers to finding magic in December. They’re 58-37-2 in December, and this is the time they normally get hot. They’re also 6-1 ATS at home after playing a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Chiefs may win this one, but it’s going to be a dogfight.
The Pick: Packers (+6 on BetRivers) cover, even if they don’t win
