What an exciting week of college football, Rivalry Week! We get conference championship week next week, Army / Navy, and then we’re in bowl season. This season has been an absolute blur. It feels like a few weeks ago, we were navigating Week Zero, and here we are at the very end of the regular season. Well, we’ve got one more big, juicy slate to dive into to build an entry for Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em.
Underdog Fantasy College Football Week 13 Higher/Lower Plays
We don’t have the USC Trojans’ defense to face, but we do still have the Colorado Buffaloes’ defense to fade! There’s also a bunch of usage rate plays that the odds makers may have overlooked. Let’s dive into the higher/lower plays for Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em in Week 13.
Utah vs. Colorado
Devaughn Vele Higher 80.5 Receiving Yards
This is our weekly fade of the Colorado defense. If you’ve been paying attention, and you certainly have, the Buffaloes have one of the softest pass defenses in the country. They allow a 64.6% completion rate, which is good for 115th in the country. Their 296.5 passing yards per game against is 130th in the country. That’s not going to improve until Coach Prime hits the transfer portal this off-season.
Utah quarterback Bryson Barnes has done well filling in for Cam Rising this year, but everyone looks like a superstar against the Colorado defense. Devaughn Vele has emerged as one of Barnes’ favorite targets this year.
Vele has picked up five or more receptions in each of his last four games, and he’s gone over 100 receiving yards in each of his last two. He may not go over 100 yards against the Buffs, but he and Barnes should hook up a few times against the soft Buffaloes pass defense.
Look for Vele to go higher on the 80.5 receiving yards total, and make sure he’s on your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Michigan vs. Ohio St.
J.J. McCarthy Lower 24.5 Passing Attempts
The Michigan Wolverines know exactly who they are and exactly what they need to do to win in the Big 10. Hint: It’s not passing. McCarthy has attempted 25 or more passes in only four out of 11 starts this year, and he’s been lower in each of his last two games.
Ohio State has the second-ranked pass defense in the country and only allows 145.3 yards per game. Teams only average 31.1 pass attempts against the Buckeyes. Opposing offenses have only completed 49.2% of passes against the Ohio State pass defense.
The Ohio State rush defense isn’t quite as dominating as their pass defense, so that’s likely how Michigan will attack the Buckeyes. Look for a steady diet of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards and not much in terms of passing from J.J. McCarthy.
The Wolverines will lean on their dynamic running backs and beefy offensive line. Go lower on McCarthy pass attempts on your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Texas vs. Texas Tech
Quinn Ewers Higher 21.5 Pass Completions
Honestly, this looks like a mistake on the slate. Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers has completed 22 or more passes in each of his last five starts. He’s gone higher than 22 pass completions in six out of nine starts this year.
The Texas Tech pass defense has been solid this year, but they’ve seen 33.2 passes attempted against per game and allow a 60.5% completion rate.
Texas Tech is already bowl-eligible and doesn’t have much to play for other than spoiling any chance that Texas has for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Texas has everything to play for, as a loss would eliminate them from any chance at a playoff spot. The Longhorns will either want to sling it early, jump out to a lead, and coast, or play a close game with the Red Raiders and need to sling it late. Either way, Ewers should complete at least 22 passes against Texas Tech, and you should have him going higher in your Underdog Fantasy College Football pick’em entry.
Missouri at Arkansas
Luther Burden III Higher 89.5 Receiving Yards
This is more a fade of a team that has nothing left to play for than a pick for Luther Burdern III.
However, Burden has gone higher than 90 receiving yards in eight out of 11 games this year. He’s struggled in a few of his recent games, but that speaks more to the quality of the opponent than Burden. He was held in check by Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Those teams can handle just about any receiver.
The Arkansas pass defense has posted solid numbers this year, but it’s more because their rush defense has been so bad. Arkansas has the 36th-ranked pass defense in the country and only allows 209.4 yards per game, but there is a bit more to the story. The Razorbacks also allow 8.1 yards per pass, which is 112th in the country. Missouri is ninth in the country with a 9.4 yards per pass average.
While the totals look good, Arkansas has allowed an opposing receiving to rack up 90 or more yards in four of their last five games, and Burden should make it five out of six. Tick the ‘higher’ box for Burden receiving yards in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Central Florida vs. Houston
John Rhys Plumlee Lower 18.5 Pass Completions
Houston has to come into the Bounce House on Saturday, and they’re likely to see a lot of the UCF Knights running game. The Cougars average 163.7 yards per game against on the ground. That average has them as the 79th-ranked rush defense. They also see 38.5 rush attempts per game. That average should end the year a little higher as the Knights will give them a heavy dose of ground and pound on Saturday.
This means that UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee won’t be throwing or completing very many passes, and that should suit the Very Golden Knights just fine. Plumlee only averages 25.0 attempts and 15.2 completions per game. He’s only gone higher than 19 pass completions in two out of nine starts. Plumlee has also been under in each of his last three games.
The UCF offense has clearly chosen more of the ‘run’ option in UCF’s RPO offense. You should do the same in your Underdog Fantasy College Pick’em entry and go lower on Plumlee’s pass completion totals.
Do you need even more college football betting advice before we start the conference championships? The team at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network has you covered. Check out The College Experience for picks on every FBS game in Week 13 and every week. Listen to the podcast, take our advice, and let it ride.
