The UFC returns to the UFC Apex for a Fight Night this Saturday for the first time in over a month. UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Craig (aka UFC Vegas 82) features two top-ranked 185-pounders battling it out in a fight that is expected to be one-sided, at least based on the odds. Elsewhere, we get a bunch of other interesting fighters – and interesting odds – spread throughout the 14-fight lineup. Here are my UFC Vegas 82 predictions and best bets.
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UFC Vegas 82 Predictions & Best Bets
Paul Craig (+300) vs. Brendan Allen
The odds in the main event have gotten too wide for me not to take a stab at Paul Craig at +300. Brendan Allen relies on his grappling to win fights, with his last three wins coming via rear-naked choke and 13 of his 22 wins coming via submission. The problem with this approach is Craig doesn’t get out grappled by anyone. He’s a better striker than Allen, with less power. Plus, he’s used to fighting and grappling bigger opponents, as he’s predominately fought at light heavyweight. If you want to make it juicier, take Craig via submission at +650.
Michael Morales (-300) vs. Jake Matthews
We move down to welterweight for the co-main event and go with the big favorite, Michael Morales. The 24-year-old Ecuadorian is a perfect 15-0 as a pro, with 11 knockouts (and one submission win). He’s five years younger than the underachieving Jake Matthews and has a whopping six-inch reach advantage over him, which he’ll use to the advantage of his powerful striking. Morales via T/KO at +130 is worth a sprinkle.
Jordan Leavitt (+200) vs. Chase Hooper
I’m going dog again in the third fight from the top, a lightweight fight between Jordan Leavitt and Chase Hooper. Leavitt has fought – and beaten – better competition and is a better and more powerful striker than the inconsistent youngster. Plus, Leavitt is a solid grappler who should at least be able to hold his own on the ground against Hooper if the fight goes there.
Amanda Ribas (-225) vs. Luana Pinheiro
Amanda Ribas makes the move back down to strawweight for this fight against fellow Brazilian Luana Pinheiro, which is the weight class I prefer Ribas at. That’s because she’s a physical fighter who excels at bullying her opponents in the cage, something easier for her to accomplish at 115 pounds. She’s got the size, the striking, the grappling, and the experience edge over Pinheiro, which is saying a lot since the 11-1 Pinheiro is a solid fighter.
Lucie Pudilova (+162) vs. Ailin Perez
Ailin Perez definitely has self-confidence, at one point claiming she was the best women’s featherweight in the world, now claiming she is Ailin ‘Nurmagomedov.’ However, she’s never done anything in the cage to back up these statements. Her resume isn’t very strong, and she hasn’t looked good in her two UFC fights. I’m definitely not laying -188 for that, so underdog Lucie Pudilova is the play. She’s got the size advantage and far better experience.
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