Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for November 18.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for November 18.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games, and be sure to check out the odds at Bet365 – they give some of the best odds out there
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NBA First FG Props – November 18
New York Knicks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tipoff – 6:00 pm EST
Spectrum Center – Charlotte, North Carolina
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Knicks might not be the best team in the league, but when it comes to early game stats, they are up there. They have the best tip percentage in the NBA and the second highest first bucket percentage (75% on both of those). The Hornets are a solid team on the tip at 54.6%, but have been awful at scoring first (just 27.3%). As a result, we sort of have to rely on a Knick here.
Four out of the nine first buckets that the Knicks have had, have been RJ Barrett. With Barrett being banged up, we obviously can’t ride with him on Saturday. Both Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson have two a piece as well. With the amount of shots that Bunson is taking, I like his chances to score first here.
First FG Bet for November 18: Jalen Brunson (+600)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – NBA TV
Both of these two teams have roughly the same numbers when it comes to first buckets. However, there is very different numbers when it comes to the tip. Brook Lopez is grabbing the Bucks the first possession in 66.7% of games. The Mavericks are well under half of the time. So while the Bucks love a low percentage shot, the Mavericks aren’t blowing me away. Let’s look to the Bucks for a play.
The Bucks have two guys with multiple first field goals. Malik Beasley has two of them, as does Giannis Antetokounmpo. While I dig the contrarian play with Beasley, he got the last one for them on Friday. Getting them in back to back days is pretty rare. I’ll grab the chalk here.
First FG Bet for November 18: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+350)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Frost Bank Center – San Antonio, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
If you’re looking for data on tips and you see Wembanyama on the bill, you might assume he’s automatic. While he’s been very good, he’s far from that on the tip. In fact, he’s tipping at nearly 15% lower than Jaren Jackson Jr and the Spurs are grabbing the first basket at over 22% less than the Grizzlies. So let’s snag a member of the Grizzlies to get us started.
Marcus Smart was the lead guy for the early buckets for the Grizzlies. With him out of commission, why not grab another guard – one that has even more shot attempts on the year. Desmond Bane is getting plenty of reps and let’s hope one opens the action on Saturday.
First FG Bet for November 18: Desmond Bane (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for November 18, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
