Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for November 5.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for November 5.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – November 5
Charlotte Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Since Dereck Lively II took over the jumps for Maxi Kleber when he went down, the Mavericks have gotten 3-of-4 first buckets. That isn’t entirely due to his jumps, especially seeing as they’re just 1-3 on the tipoff during that time. Mark Williams has been a touch better on the tip with a 3-2 record on the year. However, the Hornets aren’t shooting well early. They’re just 1-4 on the first field goals for the year. As a result, we’ll lean to Mavericks players here.
A lot of people are going to look to the chalk and play Kyrie Irving or Luka Donic. However, in the five games they’ve played this year, one player has taken 60% of the first shots for the Mavericks. That person is Derrick Jones Jr. He’s also shooting over 50% on the year. Let’s ride with the idea that they get him the rock early again.
First FG Bet for November 3: Derrick Jones Jr. (+850)
Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tipoff – 6:00 pm EST
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse – Cleveland, Ohio
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Cavaliers have a slight question mark when it comes to their jumps. Originally Evan Mobley was doing them, and was doing quite well. He was 3-2 in getting the tip and 3-2 on the first buckets for his squad. Jarrett Allen came back from injury last game and got neither in his first tip – although it was against Myles Turner, who has decent numbers. It’ll likely be Allen again tipping with Kevon Looney, who has slightly better numbers than either of the Cavaliers. However, those numbers are inflated by beating Domantas Sabonis (who is one of the worst tippers) twice.
Becasue Mobley beat Looney earlier in the year and Allen is supposedly better, I’ll go with Cavaliers here. A lot of the early looks in the first six games of the season reside in guys who are now not in the starting lineup. Isaac Okoro and Caris LaVert both have a lot of early attempts. Since I can’t trust that either of those two will start, I’ll look for pure bulk. Donovan Mitchell is an obvious play, but I actually like the value on Max Strus better. He’s has some early three-point attempts and is averaging 13 attempts per game.
First FG Bet for November 5: Max Strus (+1000)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trailblazers
Tipoff – 9:00 pm EST
Moda Center – Portland, Oregon
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The numbers are pretty even here when it comes to jump and early bucket performance. The Blazers are slightly better on the tip – 5-1 compared to 4-2. On the other hand, the Grizzlies are a bit better getting the first scores, 3-3 compared to 2-4. The great difference-maker is usually the shooting, but these guys rank 28th and 29th respectively in field goal percentage. With so little separating the two, I’ll go with the team more likely to get the ball first in Portland.
He hasn’t gotten any first buckets on the year, but so many of the Blazers’ early looks are going through Jerami Grant. He has a third of their first shots and plenty more on early possessions. He leads the team in shot attempts, so let’s hope he gets something to fall.
First FG Bet for November 5: Jerami Grant (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for November 5, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.