The UFC did it to us again. They left us hanging last week with no event on our TVs on Saturday. Somehow, we survived, and the octagon has set up shop in the Ginásio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo, Brazil, for UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Lewis (aka UFC Sao Paulo). The big boys swing leather in the main event, with a (probable) future title challenger going up against a former one. Here are my UFC Sao Paulo predictions and best bets.
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UFC Sao Paulo Predictions & Best Bets
Jailton Almeida (-485) vs. Derrick Lewis
Jailton Almeida seems destined for UFC gold. Not just at heavyweight – he could compete and win the light heavyweight title right now if he chose to. Derrick Lewis is by no means a pushover, but he’s taking this fight on short notice and has nowhere near the complete game that Almeida has. The Brazilian should take him down immediately and finish the fight on the mat – T/KO or submission – dealer’s choice. There’s no sense playing around on the feet with a puncher like Lewis.
Gabriel Bonfim (-599) vs. Nicolas Dalby
According to the odds, we’ve got a couple of squash matches headlining this card. In the co-main event, the “better of the Bonfim brothers,” Gabriel, puts his perfect 15-0 record up against the durable veteran, Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim is 13 years younger than Dalby – that’s enough reason to pick him to win this fight alone. But he’s also extremely dangerous everywhere, especially on the mat. Despite Bonfim finishing all 15 of his opponents, I’m sprinkling a bit on him getting a decision victory here at +350. Dalby has never been finished in 28 pro fights, so there’s a good chance he can survive 15 minutes.
Rodrigo Nascimento (-186) vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Rodrigo Nascimento made his UFC debut against Don’Tale Mayes in 2020, submitting the American in the second round. Now, they rematch on Nascimento’s home turf. Why? I don’t know. As well, I have no idea why the line is as low as it is. Not only is Nascimento the much better fighter, but he’s already proved it. And Nascimento via submission at +240 is free money, no?
Modestas Bukauskas (+200) vs. Vitor Petrino
My big underdog play of the week is Modestas Bukauskas. He’s making his second stint in the UFC count, winning both of his fights, part of a four-fight winning streak. He’s a more complete fighter than Vitor Petrino, is three years younger yet much more experienced, and has a superior resume. I’m loving the +200 line we’re getting here.
Denise Gomes (-125) vs. Angela Hill
This is another line I don’t get at all. Denise Gomes has looked like a destroyer of worlds over her last two fights, is fighting at home in Brazil, and is 14 years younger than Angela Hill. That last fact is the most important one here, I think. Sure, Hill has never been stopped by strikes in her lengthy career, but it’s bound to happen eventually. Maybe Saturday for a +250 payout?
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