Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 9 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. How do the Steelers perform as home dogs? Does an overtime game affect the next game?
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! Last week’s article was firing on all cylinders, and the stats led us to a 5-0 record for the second time in four weeks. Our four-week record is now 14-6, which is still winning you cash! Let’s stay on the right side of the trends and keep winning money.
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2023 NFL Week 9 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back
Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots (-3.5): How Does Washington Respond To Players Being Traded?
The Commanders were sellers at the trade deadline, indicating that this team may have already given up on this year. Sure, they are 3-6 and facing a team that’s only 2-5. However, the letdown of a big game against Philadelphia that they felt like they could have won will be hard to bounce back from. Ron Rivera’s coaching has been questionable many times this season. Both of these coaches have seen better days, but one of them is clearly in a different class.
The Commanders have struggled against the AFC East. They’re 2-13 against the spread (ATS) in the last 15 games, including 0-7 ATS when on the road against the AFC East. They’re also 7-15 ATS after a conference loss. The Commanders also struggle to take advantage of teams that are just coming off a loss. In the last seven games, they’re 2-5 ATS when facing a team that just had a straight-up loss.
The Patriots are ramping up to hit their November hot streak. They are 12-2-1 ATS at home in November in the last 15 games. They’re also 29-14-2 after playing Miami and 8-2 ATS before playing Indianapolis. The Patriots also have an interesting trend where they are 11-4 ATS against a team before the team plays Seattle. Washington plays Seattle next week.
The Pick: Patriots (-3.5)
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers: Do Panthers Make It Two In A Row?
The Panthers got their first win last week against the Texans. It was an interesting matchup where we saw the First pick in the draft (Bryce Young) against the second pick in the draft (CJ Stroud). The Colts, on the other hand, are coming off a loss at home against the Saints in a high-scoring game. Will the Panthers make it two in a row, or will the Colts be able to bounce back? What do the NFL Week 9 trends to bet say?
We just got done talking about the Patriots. Ironically, the Colts are 12-1-1 ATS on the road in games prior to playing the Patriots. They are also very good on the road in November, where they are 19-4-2 ATS on the road. They’re 9-1 against teams with less-than-average passing. They’re averaging just 224.3 passing yards a game. The Colts are 4-4 against the spread this year, while the Panthers are just 1-5-1.
Speaking of the Panthers, they can’t even seem to beat up on the bad teams. They’re 3-12 ATS at home against teams with a losing record. The Colts have a losing record. Bryce Young is 1-4-1 ATS in his starts this year. They’re also 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games against teams that just played New Orleans. It was great for the organization to get their first win, but I don’t think they get it done two times in a row, and the NFL betting trends don’t think they do, either.
The Pick: Colts (-2.5)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles: Huge NFC East Showdown
The big NFC East showdown between the Eagles and the Cowboys. The Cowboys are coming off a big win against the Rams, while the Eagles outlasted the Commanders. Will the Eagles be able to keep the momentum going? Let’s take a look at what the NFL Week 9 trends to bet lead us to think.
The Cowboys have won four of the last five games against the Eagles. They tend to show up and play them very well. However, that’s where their NFL betting trends stop. They’re 2-8 ATS after playing the Rams. They’re also 2-8 ATS on the road after a blowout win. The Cowboys tend to struggle in November. In fact, they’re 2-5 in the last seven games in November. They’re also 1-6 in the last seven games against good teams. In case you didn’t know, the Eagles are a good team.
The Eagles are one of the best-coached teams in the league. That shows through when looking at their record against good defenses. They’re 7-0 ATS when facing a strong defense. They are also 8-2 at home when revenging a loss – they lost their last game against Dallas. They’re also 18-6-1 against an opponent that just beat another NFC team and 10-4-1 against opponents that are about to face the Giants. Last, the Eagles are 8-1-1 in the last ten home games, in which they are favored by seven or fewer.
The Pick: Eagles (-3)
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Houston Texans (-2.5): Which Team Bounces Back After Loss?
The Bucs are coming off a tough loss against the Bills. The game seemed out of reach, but they were able to rally back and make it interesting down the stretch. It took a bit for Baker to settle down. The Texans also just had a tough loss when they gave their Panthers their first win. When looking at the NFL Week 9 trends to bet on, which team do the trends think will bounce back?
The Texans are home favorites in this game. Unfortunately, that doesn’t help when looking at betting trends because they are 3-12 ATS when favorites of seven or less. They are also 7-18-1 ATS when playing a team that is going to be playing Tennessee the following week. Finally, the Bucs had a mini-bye after playing on Thursday night. The Texans are 4-11 ATS when playing an opponent that has longer than a week’s rest.
Don’t get me wrong, Tampa doesn’t necessarily have strong betting trends to back this week. However, they are 13-4 ATS on the road when playing an opponent that just played Carolina. They’re also 5-2 in the last seven when playing an opponent that will be playing the Bengals the following week. There aren’t strong betting trends to follow on either side, but something tells me the Bucs pull this one out.
The Pick: Bucs (+2.5)
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Huge Rematch In AFC
It’s the rematch that you’re going to hear a lot about. It’s the Damar Hamlin game that was canceled last year after the Bengals looked to be controlling the game. Yes, the Bills will be fired up and ready to bounce back for Hamlin. However, do the NFL Week 9 trends to bet support that they can get the job done?
You’d think the Bills would excel when the stakes are high and a lot of points are projected to be scored. That’s not the case, though, as the Bills are 3-7 ATS on the road in the last 10 when the total is set at 45 or higher. The current line is set at 48.5. The Bills are also 2-5 against a team that will be playing Houston next. It’s bad enough that the Bills have lost two of the last three against the Bengals. They’re also 5-9-1 ATS on the road against the AFC North.
The Bengals are good at slowing opponents’ momentum. They are 13-2 ATS in the last 15 against opponents that are coming off a straight-up win. Burrow has been good in general against the spread. In the last 50 games, he’s 32-17-1 ATS. Unlike the Bills, the Bengals tend to succeed more when the total is set at 45 or higher. When the line is over 45, they are 17-7-1. Finally, the Bengals don’t struggle against good teams. They’re 11-4 against teams with a winning record. I think Smokin’ Joe Cool and the Bengals get it done again.
The Pick: Bengals (-2.5)