Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for October 28.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – October 28
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Washington Wizards
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Capital One Arena – Washington, DC
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Jaren Jackson Jr is one of the top tip guys in his limited sample last year. He went 25-10 (good for 71.4%) in game opening tip-offs and is already 2-0 on the year in 2023-24 as well. That could give us a pretty good indication why the Grizzlies had such a good first bucket percentage last year too. On the season they took 62% of the first shots and had 63% of the first makes. So even when tips aren’t being won, they’re coming out on the positive – which could be due to having the Defensive Player of the Year on your team.
With Ja Morant out, the Grizzlies seem to be taking more shots from around the perimeter. After averaging 34.5 over the 2022-23 season, which was already good enough for 10th in the league, they shot 43 in the first game of this season. They came back to Earth in the second game with just 33, but their first two shots were deeper ones.
First FG Bet for October 28: Desmond Bane (+425)
Chicago Bulls vs Detroit Pistons
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Little Caesars Arena – Detoit, Michigan
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Nikola Vucevic keeps losing the tip-off and giving chances to the other squad to shoot first. He lost the first jump of the year to Chet Holmgren, but did bounce back by beating Jakob Poeltl on Friday. As documented, he had just a 35% win average last year. However, the Pistons, on the other hand, might be even worse. While Jalen Duren won his first tip of the year, he went just 8-19 on opening tips last year (29.6%). They could also switch to center Isaiah Stewart, who went 6-10 on the year (37.5%). So maybe the time to strike on the Bulls is right now.
If the Bulls do manage to get an early possession, there’s a clear frontrunner for their first bucket. In 34% of the games that Bulls shot first, Vucevic was the man getting the rock. He also managed to get 33% of their first scores last year. So, it might be a little chalky, but I’ll take the big Montenegrin on Saturday night.
First FG Bet for October 28: Nikola Vucevic (+500)
Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Target Center – Minneapolis, MN
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Bam Adebayo has been off to a bad start on the tips. He’s started the year 0-2 and runs into a guy in Rudy Gobert who was good for nearly 60% on the season last year. Not only were they good on the tip, the Timberwolves were second in the league in scoring the first bucket of the game at 63%.
Anthony Edwards has been the guy getting the early deep shots for the Timberwolves so far. I had him pegged for their opening game, but the Raptors got the jump on them. I’ll ride that number for him again here.
First FG Bet for October 28: Anthony Edwards (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for October 28, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
