Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 8 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. How do the Steelers perform as home dogs? Does an overtime game affect the next game?
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! Last week’s article saw the trends let us down, going 1-4. Still, our three-week record is 9-6, which is still winning you cash! Let’s get back on the right side of the trends and keep winning money.
2023 NFL Week 8 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5): Can You Back Minshew Mania As A Favorite?
We’ll start the NFL Week 8 trends to bet with a non-conference game between the Saints and the Colts. Both teams are coming off close losses in games they were in until the very end. Though, one could argue that the Colts’ loss was more crushing after some questionable calls. So, in looking at these two teams, which are the NFL betting trends to back this week?
Neither one of these teams has been great at covering the spread, though the Colts are better, covering four of the last seven. That’s where the positivity for the Colts stops. They are 2-8 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite. You could make an argument that playing at home may be different. However, you’d be wrong, as they’re 3-7 ATS as a favorite at home in the last 10 games. As good as Minshew Mania looked last week, it feels like the close loss of last week is leading them to a let down spot.
The Saints looked good on paper to start the season, but they’ve looked bad on the field. Alvin Kamara coming back has certainly given the offense a little boost, but is it enough to help this team turn it around? The good news for the Saints this week is the betting trends are on their side. They’re 11-4 ATS as road dogs in the last 15 games. They’re also 31-18-1 in the last 50 as underdogs of less than seven points.
The Pick: Saints +1.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5): Two Playoff Teams Meet
The 49ers got humbled on Monday Night Football as Kirk Cousins and the Vikings defeated them in easy fashion. The Bengals were on a bye last week, allowing them some extra time to get healthy. Both of these teams made the playoffs last year and had a disappointing end to their season. The 49ers are 3-0 ATS at home this year. However, are the injuries catching up to them?
This is a difficult game to look at when looking at the NFL Week 8 trends to bet. It’s a rare occasion that both teams have positive trends working in their favor. The 49ers are 10-0 as favorites at home and 9-6 in the last 15 games when the total is over 45 points. The biggest question is their health. Will Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel be back this week to help them out?
The Bengals also have some nice betting trends to support picking them. They’re 9-1 ATS as underdogs, including 8-2 as road dogs. They also have a very good record when the total exceeds 45. In fact, they’re 17-8 on the road, with the total over 45. This should be one of the best games of the weekend. The Bengals started slow and need to pick it up if they want to return to the playoffs. The 49ers started fast but have had some setbacks now with injuries. Normally, I avoid the public side, and 61% have taken the Bengals to cover 3.5. However, I think the injuries are too much to overcome.
The Pick: Bengals (+3.5)
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Tennessee Titans: Can Ridder Get Second Road Win?
For the next NFL Week 8 trends to bet, we’ll head to Tennessee, where they are home dogs against the Atlanta Falcons. The Titans will be debuting rookie quarterback Will Levis, which likely means we’ll see a heavy dose of Derrick Henry. Desmond Ridder of the Falcons is coming off his first NFL road win. Can he win his second road game in the NFL right away?
The Falcons, even dating back 100 games, have not been good at covering as favorites. In fact, they’re 40-60 ATS when they are favorites. Even worse, in the last 10 games on the road as favorites, they are 3-7 ATS. There is also a trend to look at when they’re favorites of seven or fewer. They’re 9-16 when favored by seven or less.
The Titans, on the other hand, are one of those teams that excel as dogs under Head Coach Mike Vrabel. They’re 5-2 as home dogs the last seven times. That’s better than their 29-21 as underdogs in the last 50 games. However, even that is a winning record. The Titans are also 6-1 as home underdogs of seven or less. I smell a correlation here working for the Titans and against the Falcons.
The Pick: Titans +3
Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: NFC North Battle Of The Mids
This weekend features an NFC North battle between the Vikings and the Packers. Both teams have been rather disappointing. The Vikings just came off a big upset against the 49ers, and the Packers just lost to the Broncos. Currently, right in the middle of the NFC North, are there NFL betting trends to support either the 3-4 Vikings or the 2-4 Packers?
This will be only the third home game for the Packers all year. They’re currently 1-1 ATS at home, while the Vikings are 2-0-1 ATS on the road. The Packers have been a shell of themselves this year so far. Even though they’ve been very good at home, that hasn’t been the case this year and last when they were 4-5 as home dogs.
Last week, our NFL trends to bet didn’t help us as much. Therefore, we’re throwing a curveball. There aren’t strong trends to back this play. However, this is a divisional matchup. The Packers’ defense has been terrible, and the Vikings just moved the ball efficiently against a much better unit. They did that without Justin Jefferson. Expect this to be a close one, but this game belongs to the Vikings.
The Pick: Vikings -1
Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions (-8): Which Team Will Rebound?
Both the Las Vegas Raiders and Detroit Lions were embarrassed last week. The Lions lost to the Ravens, and it was never a game. The Raiders can at least use the excuse that their starting quarterback was out, and the Brian Hoyer-led team lost to the Bears. Unlike the pick above, let’s look at the NFL Week 8 trends to bet for this game and stick to them.
Let’s start with the Raiders. Is Jimmy G going to be back? Does it matter either way? While the Raiders may do alright as an underdog, they don’t do alright when they’re an underdog of more than seven points. They are 4-6 in the last ten as underdogs of seven points or more and 3-7 when that’s on the road. They’re also historically bad when the total is over 45, coming in at 79-98-3 ATS.
Moving to the Lions, who seem to trend in the exact opposite direction. In the last ten games where the total was over 45, they’re 9-1 ATS. In the last 15 games at home, when the total was over 45, they’re 11-3-1 ATS. As a favorite with Dan Campbell, they’re 4-1 ATS.
Another stat that dates back to October 30th, 2022. That’s the last time the Lions didn’t cover a spread two games in a row. That’s right, they’ve covered the spread 16 times in the last 20 games. A crazy stat when you think about the fact that this is the Lions, a team that has been known for being historically bad. We’re not fading this Dan Campbell team on a close-your-eyes special.
The Pick: Lions -8
