Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for October 25.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for October 25.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – October 25
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Scotiabank Arena – Tornonto, Ontario
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
You aren’t going to find two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of first possessions as these two. The Timberwolves were dominant on the early tip-off last year, winning just short of 60%. The Raptors, on the other hand, were downright woeful at it. Their bigs were so bad at the jump that they often left the task to their small forward Scottie Barnes, who ended the season just 17-32 total.
With Minnesota finishing fourth in the league in field goal percentage last year, I’m comfortable conceding the first hoop to them. At the beginning of the season, the only one who challenged Anthony Edwards for a lot of the early looks was D’Angelo Russell, who is not with the team anymore. After he was traded, Jaden McDaniels got some of the first shots as well, but he’s going to be out hurt. So it may be one of the chalkier plays, but Edwards is getting the hoop here.
First FG Bet for October 25: Anthony Edwards (+500)
Houston Rockets vs Orlando Magic
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Amway Center – Orlando, Florida
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Houston Rockets are a team that I always try to fade when I’m looking to first bucket props. There are two primary reasons. The first is their terrible shooting percentage. They shot just 45.7% from the field last year, which was good for 28th in the league – so even when they get the first look, they’ve got one of the worst shots at making it. The second is that they’re awful on the tip. They were just 34.5% on the first tips last year and should have the same cast jumping this year.
Once the Magic settled in late in the season, there were really only two names getting those early shots: Franz Wagner and Markelle Fultz. Both of them are way down the card at +700, but are the two best options for me. They’re pretty much even on the boards and equally likely to get put backs. However, Fultz is more likely to dish the rock and get the dime.
First FG Bet for October 25: Franz Wagner (+700)
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Delta Center – Salt Lake City, Utah
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Despite being one of the breakout big men in the league, Domantas Sabonis is pretty poor on the opening jump. Last season, he went just 25-53 on the season, which equates to almost all of the Kings opening tip-offs. Additionally, he tipped with the Jazz on three occasions, going 0-3. He lost those jumps to Walker Kessler and Kelly Olynyk twice.
While that spells disaster for the Kings, it’s not the end-all-be-all of these statistics. If fact, what might be even more damning is the fact that the early shots just did not fall late in the season for the Jazz. Over their last four games, they averaged missing 2.5 shots before making one. With Sacramento rocking the third-highest field goal percentage in the league last year, I can see them taking advantage of a miss and getting the first hoop.
A lot of the early looks early in the 2022-23 season went on the deep ball. A surprising number of them wound up in the hands of Kevin Huerter. They lost their first five games last year, but I’m not sure he doesn’t still come out shooting.
First FG Bet for October 25: Kevin Huerter (+1200)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for October 25, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
