This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Homestead, Miami, to take on the 1.502-mile Homestead-Miami Speedway for the second race of the Round of 8 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
NASCAR Cup Series 4Ever 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Last week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, 2021 Cup Series champion Kyle Larson held off a hard-charging Christopher Bell in the closing laps to be the first driver to punch his ticket to the Phoenix championship race. No matter his result in these next two races, Larson is locked in to be one of the four drivers fighting for the 2023 crown.
This weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Kyle Larson opened as a heavy favorite to sit on the pole (-110 Caesars Sportsbook) and to win the race (+250 Caesars Sportsbook). On the NASCAR Gambling Podcast this week, we discussed the downside of betting on a Cup Series driver at such low odds, even if all signs point to it being a great day for Larson and his #5 Hendrick Chevrolet.
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NASCAR Cup Series 4Ever 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway Odds Via Caesars Sportsbook
Kyle Larson +250
Martin Truex Jr +525
Tyler Reddick +600
Denny Hamlin +700
William Byron +750
Christopher Bell +1200
Ross Chastain +1600
Kyle Busch +1600
Brad Keselowski +1800
Ryan Blaney +1800
Chris Buescher +1800
Chase Elliott +2200
Kevin Harvick +2500
Bubba Wallace +3500
Ty Gibbs +4500
Joey Logano +4500
Alex Bowman +5500
Erik Jones +8000
Daniel Suarez +8000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Aric Almirola +25000
Austin Dillon +25000
Michael McDowell +30000
AJ Allmendinger +30000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +40000
Chase Briscoe +50000
Austin Cindric +50000
Ryan Preece +75000
Justin Haley +75000
Harrison Burton +100000
Corey Lajoie +200000
Todd Gilliland +200000
Ryan Newman +300000
JJ Yeley +500000
Josh Bilicki +500000
Ty Dillon +250000
Updated Cup driver points: Larson-win, Byron +9, Truex +2, Hamlin +2, Bell -2, Reddick -16, Blaney -17, Buescher -23 pic.twitter.com/qIxba9QoI5
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) October 17, 2023
NASCAR Cup Series 4Ever 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway Best Bets
Kevin Harvick Top 10 Finish (+140 Bet365)
Kevin Harvick has made 22 career Cup Series starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In 19 of those 22 starts, Harvick has finished in the top 10. That is a top 10 finishing average of 86% for a career that started in 2001. Harvick has been lights out at this track over the years, and Mobile 1 even purchased the naming rights for the race to name it the 4Ever 400 in honor of Kevin Harvick.
In addition to that, Harvick will be running the same Budweiser Beer paint scheme he won his 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship with at this very track. Harvick top finishing Ford (+450 Caesars Sportsbook) is also worth a bet.
Austin Dillon Top 10 Finish (+500 Caesars Sportsbook)
Austin Dillon is another driver with a great track record at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Over the last three races here, Dillon has the sixth-best average finish (fourth-best of drivers who have run all three races) at 7.7. After finishing 25th and 14th, respectively, in his first two starts here, Dillon hasn’t finished worse than 12th in his last seven starts.
Last season, Dillon took home a fourth-place finish. If I can get a driver who has finished within two spots of the top 10 in seven consecutive races at 5/1, I’ll place that bet every time.
At Homestead over the last seven races, Austin Dillon has a 9.3 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 12 every race.
9th at Auto Club early in the season which you could argue is the most similar track, surface wise.
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) October 17, 2023
Alex Bowman Over Joey Logano (+100 Caesars Sportsbook)
Joey Logano has a streak of five top-six finishes, including his 2018 championship race win from 2015 to 2019. However, ever since Homestead-Miami Speedway left the championship race, it hasn’t been a kind track to Logano. His last three finishes here have been 18th last year, 25th in 2021, and 27th in 2020. Toss in Logano and Ford in general’s inconsistency on 1.5-mile tracks this season, and that’s every reason to be off Logano this weekend.
Alex Bowman finished better than Logano in 2020 and 2021 (he missed 2022 due to a concussion) in his last three races here, finishing ninth twice and 18th in 2020.
Bowman hasn’t been the same this season since returning from his back injury that sidelined him multiple races. He has shown speed and consistency, though. Last week at Las Vegas, Bowman had a fast car before wrecking and finishing last. Before that, on 1.5-mile tracks, Bowman scored consistent finishes of 12th at Texas, 10th at Kansas, and 12th at Charlotte. Finishes like this should be enough to get the best of Logano on Sunday.
NASCAR Cup Series 4Ever 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway Best Outright Bets
Denny Hamlin to Win (+700 Caesars Sportsbook)
Denny Hamlin hasn’t finished worse than 12th at Homestead-Miami Speedway since 2012. Hamlin always finds a way to be upfront and in the mix. Heading into the weekend only +2 points above the cut line, a win here would solve all of Hamlin’s worries and lock him into the chance at finally getting that first championship.
In 2020, Hamlin led 137 laps on his way to scoring his third win at Homestead-Miami. This season, Hamlin has been one of the strongest cars every time NASCAR heads to a 1.5-mile track. Hamlin won Kansas in the spring, leading 34 laps and passing Kyle Larson on the last lap. Hamlin led 177 laps at Darlington before a loose wheel cost him the win.
He led 63 laps at Kansas in the fall before a late caution put Tyler Reddick ahead of him. Hamlin should have a fast car this weekend and may be one of the only drivers capable of keeping up with Kyle Larson.
Kevin Harvick to Win (+3000 Superbook Sportsbook)
As mentioned above, the race is named after Harvick. His longtime crew chief, Rodney Childers, is one of the honorary starters this weekend, and Harvick has been good at this track. It’s unlikely he’ll have the fastest car from the drop of the green flag, but at this number, Harvick is a guy who will have himself in position (19 of 22 races in the top 10) late in the race to capitalize. At 30/1, you are missing out if you don’t have an outright on Harvick this weekend.
