After ousting the National League’s only two 100-win teams, the Phillies and the Diamondbacks meet in the NLCS. The series gets started Monday night in Philadelphia as the hometown squad looks to make it two straight pennants. On paper, their opponents may be easier than the ones they already took out, but these are two teams that are made for October baseball and look to make each other’s lives miserable. And, of course, what NLCS preview would be complete without looking at some NLCS best bets.
So, before you get down with this exciting series, come see what we’ve put together. We’ve got our thoughts on the series as a whole, along with some NLCS bets. You’re not going to want to miss this or any of the games.
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NLCS Series Betting Preview and Predictions
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday 10/16, 8:07 pm EST – Game 1
Tuesday 10/17, 8:07 pm EST – Game 2
Thursday 10/19, 5:07 pm EST – Game 3
Friday, 10/20, 8:07 pm EST – Game 4
Saturday 10/21, 8:07 pm EST – Game 5 (if necessary)
Monday 10/23, 5:07 pm EST – Game 6 (if necessary)
Tuesday 10/24, 8:07 pm EST – Game 7 (if necessary)
Pitching Matchup
No NLCS preview should start anywhere other than the exciting pitching matchups straight out of the gate. Game 1 will feature two pitchers who, at various points in the season, were the odds-on favorite to win the National League Cy Young. While that honor is almost certainly going to Blake Snell at this point, that doesn’t diminish what a great matchup we have here.
The Diamondbacks will send Zac Gallen to the hill, who has been solid in the postseason but short of his usual amazing self. He’s been touched up for a pair of runs in each of his starts and only got through 11.1 innings. While Zack Wheeler gave up the same number of runs in his two starts, he has been a bit more durable for the Phils.
The game two matchup isn’t all that much worse. Merrill Kelly, who has been a revelation for the Diamondbacks, gets the ball against Aaron Nola. Kelly has allowed just one earned run in 13.1 innings so far this postseason. Nola hasn’t been quite that good but he flashed some nice strikeout stuff against the Braves last time out.
Hitting Matchup
Although the pitching in Game 1 and beyond is stellar, perhaps the bigger storyline as of late is the bats of both teams. The Phillies came alive against the Braves with 21 runs in a four-game series. Four dingers from Nick Castellanos certainly didn’t hurt. The Diamondbacks tagged the Dodgers for 19, but that was only over three games. It’s made even more impressive by the fact that they came as a result of nine home runs – two of which came from rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno. Both teams also lit up their respective wild card opponents for 11 runs in two games, meaning this is hardly a fluke.
NLCS Best Bets
When taking a look at this series, it’s hard to imagine either team running away with it. As I mentioned before, both teams have exceptional tops to their rotation – all of which may see multiple games. Plus, neither team has been all that shy with the bats and have roughly been putting together the same level of production. So my first bet, while a little chalky, is that this series should go at least six games.
NLCS Best Bet: Over 5.5 Games (-185)
It wouldn’t be a preview article without getting on a big underdog line. One guy who is smashing the ball as of late and could surprise some people is Gabriel Moreno. He’s played just five postseason games but has three home runs in those games, which is more than he had in all of September. He’s slugging a ridiculous .813 this playoffs and is clearly hot at the right time. I like the long-shot odds that he stays hot and hits more than anyone else.
NLCS Best Bet: Gabriel Moreno – Most Home Runs for Series (+2500)
While the Phillies certainly have experience on their side, the Diamondbacks have had the more stable pitching as of late. I like their ability to limit runs a bit better here. I also worry a bit about the way that the Phillies deploy their bullpen, as a fading Craig Kimbrel is still being brought on in high-leverage situations. Combine that all with Diamondbacks hitters getting hot at the right time, and I’ll take them to win the series.
NLCS Best Bet: Diamondbacks to Win the Series (+150)
You can also get even more information on the NLCS by listening to the MLB Gambling Podcast, which includes an NLCS preview. They’ve got daily episodes with MLB picks to make you the smartest guy (or gal) at the bar.
